The San Francisco 49ers wrap up their 2018 regular seasons schedule this Sunday when they travel to face the Los Angeles Rams. Win or lose, the 49ers have already hit the under on their preseason win total. Las Vegas opened the 49ers at 8 wins last April, and the number closed out 8.5. Once Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL, I think most people figured the 49ers were not going to hit the over.
Oddsmakers release the next year’s Super Bowl odds as soon as the current Super Bowl wraps, but we won’t see win totals installed until after the regular season schedule is released. That being said, we will head into the offseason knowing who the 49ers will play. The NFL uses a formula that allows us to figure out 14 of the 16 opponents before the season even starts, and the final two opponents once the final standings are settled.
The 49ers will face their division-mates twice and then once against each member of the the NFC South and AFC North. Their remaining two games are the teams in the NFC East and North that finish in the same spot in the standings as the 49ers at the end of the season.
Heading into Week 17, the 49ers are in third place in the NFC West. If the 49ers beat the Los Angeles Rams or the Arizona Cardinals lose to the Seattle Seahawks, the 49ers will be the secure third place. If that happens, they will host the Green Bay Packers and travel to face Washington. Although Washington can still finish in a tie with Philadelphia, the common games tiebreaker would put Philly in second and Washington in third. If the 49ers were to lose and Arizona were to win, the 49ers would host the Detroit Lions and travel to face the New York Giants.
Odds are pretty good Arizona loses and the 49ers remain in third place, which would result in this slate of opponents:
Home: Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals, Falcons, Panthers, Browns, Steelers, Packers
Away: Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals, Saints, Buccaneers, Ravens, Bengals, Washington
The win totals will not be listed until late April, which means well after the big names in free agency have signed. The draft will still be coming, but plenty of big moves will already happen.
With all that in mind, what kind of win total do you expect to see oddsmakers list for the 49ers next April? They opened at eight wins this season thanks to the acquisition of Jimmy Garoppolo and the team’s strong finish once he moved into the starting lineup. He will be coming off a torn ACL, but he also should be fully recovered for next season if things continue on their current pace.
Given the 49ers improvement these last few weeks, I would not be surprised to see another win total of eight when they’re released. I suppose some might go to 7.5, but given the return of Garoppolo, that seems too low if they want to avoid having too much liability on the over.