FanPost

49ers 100% guaranteed to have a top 5 pick. Crunching the numbers to define all possible 49ers' pick outcomes.

Additionally, if Arizona beats the Seahawks, the 49ers have at least a 68.75% chance to end up with the #1 overall pick!!

One more thing I just worked out, the 49ers are now guaranteed to end up with no worse than the #5 overall pick
- even if they beat the Rams on Sunday. The full details on why this is true have been added at the bottom of this post.

Here are the details
for all the different outcomes for draft pick slotting if the 49ers lose on Sunday. Note that almost all of this also assumes that the Jets will lose their final game of the season to the Pats.

The updated 2019 NFL Draft standings for the bottom 4 teams (through the end of Week 16) are:
1. Arizona (3-12) (SOS=.5250);
2. 49ers (4-11) (SOS=.5042);
3. Jets (4-11) (SOS=.5063);
4. Oakland (4-11) (SOS=.5458).


The 49ers' Strength of Schedule (SOS) is now 1.5 games lower than the Jets', 10 games lower than the Cards', & 18 games lower than the Raiders'. In cases where 2, or more, teams from different conferences (NFC and AFC) end up with the same final won-loss records, the first tie-breaker used to decide which team(s) gets the better pick(s) in Round 1 is done by comparing each teams Strength of Schedule (SOS). The team with the lowest SOS gets the better pick. If the SOS is identical, then the pick positioning is decided by a coin flip. I should note, though it doesn't apply to this situation, if all of the tied teams are from the same conference, then each team's division record, followed by their conference record, would be used to decide draft pick positioning in Round 1. In other words, SOS is the 3rd tie-breaker when the tied teams are all from the same conference.

Because of the games scheduled this Sunday, it is mathematically impossible for the 49ers' final SOS to finish above that of Arizona's & Oakland's. That means that if the 49ers lose to the Rams & finish the season with the same won-loss record as Arizona or Oakland, the 49ers are guaranteed to get the better pick over either of those 2 teams in Round 1.

That means that, if they lose to the Rams on Sunday, the 49ers are currently guaranteed to have 1 of the first 3 picks in the Draft no matter what the outcome of any other game is. If the Cards were also to beat Seattle on Sunday, the 49ers would be guaranteed 1 of the first 2 picks in the Draft. Of the 8 teams that the 49ers might possibly end up tied with at the end of the season, the 49ers can only possibly lose a SOS tie-breaker with the Jets and the Lions.

Looking at this Sunday's upcoming NFL schedule, there are only 4 games (besides the games the 49ers & Jets play vs. the Rams & Pats, respectively) that will decide whether the 49ers or Jets get the better pick in Round 1:
Falcons* at Bucs,
Browns* at Ravens,
Chargers at Denver*,
Dallas* at Giants.

An asterisk denotes the teams that the 49ers want to win.



If at least 2 of the 4 teams with an asterisk by their names win on Sunday, the 49ers will earn a better Round 1 pick than the Jets. OTOH, if at least 3 of those 4 teams lose, the Jets end up with the better pick.

There are 16 possible different outcomes of the 4 key games that I list above - assuming none of them end in a tie. The 49ers SOS ends up lower than the Jets in 11 of the 16 outcomes, while the Jets SOS ends up lower than the 49ers in 5 of them. So, the 49ers have a 68.75% chance (11 divided by 16) of ending with a lower SOS than the Jets when the season ends. That will ensure them a better overall pick than the Jets in Round 1.

(I DID MORE NUMBER-CRUNCHING & ADDED THE FOLLOWING TO THIS POST ON CHRISTMAS DAY)

What if disaster strikes & the 49ers beat the Rams in their final game (for the 3rd consecutive season!!)?

That would mean the 49ers final record would be 5-11. There are a total of 7 other teams that could possibly finish with that same record, including the other 2 teams that currently have a 4-11 record (Oakland & the Jets). Since there would almost certainly be at least 1 team from both conferences involved in this tie-breaker scenario, the deciding criteria for draft pick slotting in Round 1 would be SOS (followed by a coin flip).

How does the 49ers current SOS compare to the 7 other teams that they could possibly end up tied with at 5-11? Here are the current SOS rankings:

1. Lions (SOS=.5042);
2. 49ers (SOS=.5042);
3. Jets (SOS=.5063);
4. Bucs (SOS=.5208);
5 (tie). Bills (SOS=.5250);
5 (tie). Giants (SOS=.5250);
7. Jags (SOS=.5438);
8. Raiders (SOS=.5458)


Looking at it from an easier to understand POV, the 49ers SOS is:
2 games better than the Lions The same as the Lions,
1.5 games lower than the Jets,
8 games lower than the Bucs,
9 games lower than the Giants,
10 games lower than the Bills,
18.5 games lower than the Jags,
20 games lower than the Raiders.

Because of the schedule of games on Sunday, it’s mathematically impossible for the 49ers to end their season with a SOS that is higher than the Bucs, Giants, Bills, Jags or Raiders. Of the teams they could possibly end up tied with, only the Lions & the Jets have a chance to end up with a final SOS that is lower than the 49ers’ SOS.

Therefore, if the 49ers win on Sunday, the worst draft pick they could possibly end up with would be the #5 overall pick. The best pick they could possibly end up with would be the #2 overall pick.
If picking at #5 overall, the 4 teams picking ahead of them would be (in some order): Arizona, Jets, Lions, Raiders .
If picking at #2 overall, the only teams that could be picking ahead of them would be Arizona or the Jets.


There are only 3 games left that will determine if the 49ers or Lions end up with the lower SOS:
Falcons* at Bucs,
Panthers* at Saints,
Dallas* at Giants.

An asterisk denotes the teams that the 49ers need to win.

For the 49ers to end up with a lower SOS than the Lions, all 3 games at least 2 of the 3 games must go in favor of the 49ers.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.