Fooch's note: There's no guarantee the 49ers will have a good or great turnover differential next season, but it is a stat prone to regression. That is not the only thing that will determine how they do in 2019, but it is worth noting, and so I thought this was an interesting FanPost to bump to the front page.
So I decided to look up teams with the worst turnover differential over the last few years, their record that year and then their record the next year. I'm gonna go back 5 years.
2017: Cleveland Browns -28, Record 0-16
Why did Cleveland have such a bad turnover differential? Well they had Deshone Kizer all season, he threw more interception than any rookie QB in NFL history and they were an undisciplined Hue team. Their Turnover differential now? +11 that's a 39 turnover difference. THAT MASSIVE. And their record? Better, now why? Baker is still sloppy with the ball but not Kizer level and the defense is playing better in the 2nd year under Williams.
2016: Chicago Bears -20 Record 3-13
They had a floundering Jay Cutler who then got hurt, tried Matt Barkley and Brian Hoyer at QB and the defense was playing bad in Fangio's first year as D- Coordinator. The Next year? +2 in Mitsubishi's first year. Record? Still bad but 5-11, better with a Rookie QB and a terrible offense lead by a coach about to be fired and 22 turnover swing.
2015: Dallas Cowboys -22, Record 4-12
Romo got hurt, and they were starting Kellen Moore (Guy I think is a lot like Mullens) as one of a 3 QB carousel and they lost ALOT they were awful? So how's they turn it around, well Romo came back but he got hurt and they started a new QB BUT they also turned to a new style, run the ball a lot, play action with the rookie don't ask too much of him. So what was the turn around? +5 turnover differential a 27 turnover swing. And what was the Record? 13-3. And to me this is most like San Francisco, we are starting back ups and everything looks bad, but we discovered we can run the ball and just like Dallas in 2015 our running game is working and our star back is hurt.
2014: Oakland Raider -15, Record 2-14
They were starting guys like Andrew Walter most of the season only going to Carr at the end of the year and he gave them the spark to win their last 2 games? They had nothing special on Defense except a promising rookie outside pass rusher named Khalil Mack....So next season? + 2 that's a 17 turnover switch they went 7-9 that's 5 more games. But more importantly by 2016 the same team was FIRST in turnover differential and won 12 games.
So what did I find? There's no correlation from one year to another based on turnover differential. That said if Dallas is any indication we need to be prepared for the possibility that Jimmy Garoppolo is injury prone and make sure we invest in a back up QB. I'd say Tyrod Taylor. Because the combo of C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens looks a lot like Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassell, and/or Kellen Moore.
But also the average jump in turnovers the next year? 20, Which means we'll be better next year because guys, it's all luck. So either A) Beathard gets better, B) Jimmy G plays the whole Season. C) Better back up QB. So let me know what you think but I believe the Data and history backs up there's almost no way we're this bad next season because the reason we're losing is Turnover differential.