The San Francisco 49ers dropped to 2-10 this past weekend, and 2-11 is on the radar with the Denver Broncos coming to town. The 49ers could spring an upset, but the remaining slate leaves 2-14 as a very real possibility.
The NFL kicks off Week 14 on Thursday, and it’s time for another look at Football Outsiders’ draft pick odds. They run simulations using weighted DVOA to assess playoff and draft pick odds each week. Through 13 weeks, it is not surprising the 49ers are favorites to claim the top pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. FO has them at 57.8 percent odds of claiming the No. 1 pick and 98.4 percent odds of claiming a top five pick. The Oakland Raiders are second in both, with 23.4 percent odds of claiming the No. 1 pick and 95.8 percent odds of claiming a top five pick.
A week ago, the 49ers were sitting at 45 percent odds of claiming the top pick. Arizona was second at 29.8 percent, but their win over Green Bay dropped their top pick odds to 6.9 percent.
Where it gets interesting is the strength of schedule tiebreaker. The 49ers and Raiders are tied at 2-10, and both have a very good chance of losing their remaining four games. SOS is the tiebreaker, and if that is even, it goes to a coin flip.
Heading into Week 14, the 49ers SOS is .526, and the Raiders SOS is .568. The Raiders SOS is the toughest in the NFL, while the 49ers is tied for sixth. SOS can change fairly drastically. For example, the 49ers were down near .500 a couple weeks ago. Each week we’ll see adjustments back and forth for both teams.
Each week, as long as the strength of schedule tiebreaker is necessary, we’ll take a look at the comparable schedules for that week. We’ll have a Sunday rooting guide that covers that and more, but we’ll accompany FO’s draft pick odds with a look at the upcoming week’s schedule and who we want to win in matchups involving an opponent on the 49ers and/or Raiders schedule.
Panthers @ Browns: Browns — CLE was Raiders opponent
Falcons @ Packers: Falcons — GB was 49ers opponent
Ravens @ Chiefs: Doesn’t matter — Raiders play KC twice, BAL once; 49ers play KC once. Regardless of who wins, it nets out the same. KC win is 2 wins + 1 loss for Raiders and 1 win for 49ers. BAL win is 2 losses + 1 win for Raiders and 1 loss for 49ers
Patriots @ Dolphins: Dolphins — MIA was Raiders opponent
Saints @ Buccaneers: Saints — TB was 49ers opponent
Giants @ Washington: Washington — NYG was 49ers opponent
Colts @ Texans: Colts — IND was Raiders opponent
Broncos @ 49ers: Broncos
Steelers @ Raiders: Raiders
Lions @ Cardinals: Doesn’t matter — Same as Ravens-Chiefs
Rams @ Bears: Doesn’t matter — Same as Ravens-Chiefs
Vikings @ Seahawks: Doesn’t matter — Same as Ravens-Chiefs