The San Francisco 49ers host the Denver Broncos on Sunday, and are currently four point underdogs. The line opened as high as six points, but has come down over the course of the week with bettors deciding to side with the 49ers.
The folks at William Hill post updates over the course of the week for each game, with a look at the percentage of total tickets bet on a point spread and the percentage of total money bet on a point spread. For 49ers-Broncos, 77 percent of tickets have been on the Broncos, but 51 percent of the total money has been on the 49ers.
When tickets are one way and the money is the other way, it gives us reason to pause. We don’t know exactly who is betting on which side. It could mean some big public bets pushed it, but it often can mean that sharp bettors are jumping on one side. The hubbub seems to lean a little bit sharp on this, but either way, it is something to consider in making your decision.
I’ll be posting my picks against the spread later this week, including my five Westgate SuperContest picks. My pick is based on whatever the line was Wednesday night, and the SuperContest is giving me 49ers +4.5. I like having that hook in a game that might be a little more interesting than some would expect.
The Broncos defense could do some serious damage to the 49ers, but I also think we see the 49ers defense have one of their better performances of the year. The Broncos are dominating on the ground, but the 49ers run defense is decent enough that they might be able to contain Phillip Lindsay. No more Emmanuel Sanders leaves Case Keenum with Courtland Sutton and some bodies. The Broncos offensive line ranks No. 12 in adjusted sack rate. That’s solid, but maybe the loss of Sanders is the opening the 49ers defense needs to force some turnovers.
I’ll take the 4.5 points, and even if it doesn’t work out, at least the 49ers will have maintained their worst record in the NFL, amirite?