FanPost

I hate cheering for losses but.... (or I should say grumbling about wins)

Lets talk the draft! We want to be in the captain's chair so we can get our Myles Garrett instead of what we settled for in Solomon Thomas, not to say Thomas was a bad pick you'd be hard pressed to find a mock draft board where he was not in the top 5 picks he just turned out to be a high pick that hasn't worked out.

That said I'm supposed to be writing a final for a class of mine, but I just can't get my mind around strength of schedule of teams.

Currently we are tied with Arizona for strength of schedule, and if you go by the NFL rules then head to head matchups do not matter nor does actual division record both of which would give us an "advantage" over Arizona but it is irrelevant since neither is counted. Common opponents does matter after strength of schedule though and so far that has been Green Bay which we have the advantage because we lost and Arizona won, however we beat Detroit and they just lost to Detroit, so we're down to a coin flip to if we in fact are tied... which we are... BUT JUST RIGHT NOW!!!!

Ok so I cry and moan about doing numerical analysis but the reality is my brain is kind of wired to do it, to the point where I feel this deep itch when it can be done and I just don't do it... especially when it's relatively simple. So lets break this down as far as a "cheering guide"

First off, if we get one more win and everyone else "in our bracket" loses we will drop to the 5th picking spot by default, possibly as low as 7th spot (I didn't go that deep into strength of schedule), so I'm just throwing that out there I know wins feel good but the reality is if we win, we need help to get a top 3 pick (as in the Arizona, Oakland, New Jersey, Atlanta and Buffalo need to win).

Second, I'm only going to focus only on the "if we lose out" scenario, and to add to that I refuse to calculate the Oakland side of things, they I believe like 12-13 games of their schedule are uncommon with either Arizona or SFand then you have to calculate all the perturbations... yeah that itch I mentioned above ain't that scratchy... I'll let some other site do that who gets money from banner ad revenue, I'm just some fan sitting at his desk procrastinating work. So basically I'm focusing on Arizona and SF.

So between the two teams there are four uncommon games played, for San Francisco NYG & Tampa Bay, for Arizona it's Washington & Atlanta, that makes doing scenarios much easier. The last three games for SF are against common opponents so the "lose out" scenario" it really doesn't matter what those teams do as far as their other games, and Arizona has 2 common opponents (ditto), and they also play Atlanta.

That Atlanta game is definitely a good thing because if Arizona loses out then their SoS got one game stronger by default, and if Arizona wins, then we're in command of our tankiness! However Atlanta also plays Tampa Bay at the end of the year which means a 2 game swing either for us or against us, more later on this.

Scenario 1: NYG & TB lose out, Atlanta's only has 1 loss then (Arizona & TB both victories). Draft pick #1 is ours with a .511 vs .521 SoS

Scenario 2: Atlanta beats TB & Arizona, then if NYG & TB get a combined 2 wins we're back to a coin flip for a tie SoS, only 1 combined win then we are once again at #1 with .517 vs .521

Scenario 3: TB beats Atlanta, this is the worst possible scenario because it means that even if NYG & TB lose out all other games (except against Atl) we're at a tie SoS and a coin flip away. NYG or TB have 1 win or more, then enjoy the #2 pick.

Here's the mental math gymnastics between all these scenarios if you need to wrap your mind around it, each team has 2 uncommon teams, but of those uncommon teams 1 from each side plays each other. So for us the max number of losses is 6 for our teams (3 games x 2 teams), if that happens that means the max number of losses for Arizona's teams is 5 but if they have 5 losses with our 6 that means Arizona beat Atlanta. So if we want to take that scenario out then if our teams have 6 losses that means Arizona's have 4 max losses so yay for us (Scenario 1), and that gives us some wiggle room of 1 less loss (Scenario 2). Now if TB beats Arizona then that would be 5 max losses vs 5 max losses (scenario 3) coin flip time)

So who do we care wins? Well outside of Arizona pulling off a victory we'd need Washington to win to give a bit more breathing room, but outside of that no more wins for TB nor NYG is a good cheering guide, because if that happens at we're in control of our destiny (although we literally aren't :D), and send good mojo to Atlanta for Week 17 (Tampa Bay) and bad mojo to Atlanta for Week 16 (Arizona)

Ok sorry for babbling on.. in addition to crunching numbers, i tend to be overly verbose when explaining things.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.