FanPost

Building the 2018 Final-53 ................................ Final Cuts / Final-53 / P Squad (Part 6 of 6)

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Overview of the entire article ...

Step 1. Decisions on Our Free Agents

Step 2. Veteran Additions ... IR Returns and Free Agent Additions

Step 3. Prospective Player Trades

Step 4. Resulting Draft Needs and Alternative Draft Strategies

Step 5. 2018 Mock Draft

Step 6. Projected Final Cuts / 2018 Final-53 / Practice Squad

******************************************************************************************************************************

Let's take a moment to review where we are in this series of articles:

  • In Step 1. we sorted through our pending free agents and ended up retaining 10 (including Garoppolo, Carradine and Reid) and letting 11 walk (including Hyde, Kilgore and Dontae Johnson).
  • In Step 2. we evaluated potential free agents from other teams and chose to add 5 veteran players to provide immediate upgrades at five positions, three on offense (C Weston Richburg, WR Sammy Watkins, TE Cameron Brate) and two on defense (CB Trumaine Johnson and E Ziggy Ansah).
  • In Step 3. we opted to trade two of our veteran players who weren't good scheme fits any longer and who were about to become excessively expensive for their expected contribution to the team ... DB Jimmie Ward and DL Arik Armstead. In return we received fourth- and third-round draft picks respectively.
  • In Step 4. we developed a "net needs list", reflecting draft needs after those eliminated with the return of players from IR and the addition of players in free agency (including the extended QB Jimmy Garoppolo). We then compared a list of prospects likely available at Pick #9/10 in the draft to that "net needs list" and determined that a trade-down draft strategy was probably most appropriate for the circumstances. Then we identified the optimum trade partners to acquire the picks that could best fit the net-needs list developed.
  • In Step 5. we executed the appropriate draft-pick trades and selected the prospects that provided the best fits and values for our needs in the draft:

E Marcus Davenport (Texas - San Antonio)

OG Billy Price (Ohio State)

CB Quenton Meeks (Stanford)

OT Jamarco Jones (Ohio State)

WR Jaleel Scott (New Mexico State)

RB Justin Jackson (Northwestern)

ILB Nick DeLuca (North Dakota State)

And 2 additional players as BPAs

.

With the signing of a number of additional unrestricted veteran free agents and undrafted rookie free agents we filled out the 90-man off-season roster for participation in OTAs and Training Camp.

We now move forward some four months in time to September 1, 2018 ... the date that NFL rosters must be pared down to the Final-53.

The following table summarizes all of my projections of the ultimate outcomes of roster decisions made at that time. Reading the table from left to right the columns present:

  • Position identity and expected number of players at that position in the Final-53

(Note that I have reduced the number of RBs on the Final-53 from 4 to 3 [with 2 more on the Practice Squad] in order to increase the number of OGs from the typical 3 to 4. I did this in order to allow time to sort out the troublesome OG position by having more options available to evaluate in game situations.)

  • Players available at the position at the end of the 2017 season ... including players on Injured Reserve and Practice Squad (i.e., the starting point)
  • Pending Free Agents and an indication as to whether the player was extended or not (from Step 1.)
  • Players signed in free agency (from Step 2.)
  • Players traded (from Step 3.)
  • 2018 draftees (from Step 5.)
  • Players cut to reach the Final-53 limit
  • Projected 2018 Final-53 roster
  • Categorical data: * indicates presumed starters; PS indicates players cut but reclaimed and assigned to the 10-man Practice Squad.

2017

Extend

Free

Final

Position

Roster

(or Not)

Agents

Traded

Draftees

Cuts

Final-53

QB (2)

Garoppolo

Garoppolo

Garoppolo

*

Beathard

Beathard

Mullen

(Mullen)

PS

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FB (1)

Juszczyk

Juszczyk

*

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RB (3)

Hyde

(Hyde)

Breida

Breida

*

McNichols

(McNichols)

PS

Williams

Williams

*

Mostert

Mostert

(Mostert)

PS

Jackson

Jackson

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WR (6)

Goodwin

Goodwin

Murphy

(Murphy)

Bourne

Bourne

Robinson

(Robinson)

Taylor

Taylor

*

McCaffrey

(McCaffrey)

Garcon

Garcon

*

Burbridge

(Burbridge)

Bolden

(Bolden)

PS

Carter

(Carter)

Watkins

Watkins

*

Scott

Scott

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TE (3)

Kittle

Kittle

*

Celek

Celek

Paulsen

(Paulsen)

Hikutini

(Hikutini)

PS

Wick

(Wick)

Brate

Brate

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OT (3)

Staley

Staley

*

Brown

Brown

*

Gilliam

Gilliam

(Gilliam)

Williams

(Williams)

PS

Jones

Jones

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OG (4)

Tomlinson

Tomlinson

Fusco

Fusco

Fusco

Beadles

(Beadles)

Garnett

Garnett

*

Flynn

(Flynn)

Hunt

(Hunt)

Price

Price

*

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

C (2)

Kilgore

(Kilgore)

Barnes

(Barnes)

Magnuson

Magnuson

Richburg

Richburg

*

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6 PS

2017

Extend

Free

Final

Position

Roster

(or Not)

Agents

Traded

Draftees

Cuts

Final-53

NT (2)

Mitchell

Mitchell

*

DJ Jones

DJ Jones

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DT (3)

Buckner

Buckner

*

Blair

Blair

Day

Day

Douzable

(Douzable)

C. Jones

(C. Jones)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

END (2)

Thomas

Thomas

*

Carradine

Carradine

Carradine

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEO (3)

Dumervil

Dumervil

Lynch

(Lynch)

Armstead

(Armstead)

Ansah

Ansah

*

Davenport

Davenport

*

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAM (2)

Harold

(Harold)

Taumoepenu

(Taumoepenu)

PS

Marsh

Marsh

Marsh

*

Watson

Watson

Newsom

(Newsom)

PS

Gilbert

(Gilbert)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIKE (2)

Foster

Foster

*

Coyle

Coyle

Coyle

Nzeocha

(Nzeocha)

DeLuca

(DeLuca)

PS

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WILL (2)

Smith

Smith

*

Lee

Lee

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SS (2)

Reid

Reid

Reid

Tartt

Tartt

*

James

(James)

PS

Exum

(Exum)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FS (2)

Colbert

Colbert

*

McCoil

McCoil

Ward

(Ward)

Don Jones

(Don Jones)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CB (6)

Witherspoon

Witherspoon

*

D Johnson

(Johnson)

Williams

Williams

*

Hall

Hall

Hall

Mabin

Mabin

Powell

(Powell)

Jackson

(Jackson)

T.Johnson

T.Johnson

*

Meeks

Meeks

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4 PS

K (1)

Gould

Gould

*

P (1)

Pinion

Pinion

*

LS (1)

Nelson

Nelson

*

10 PS

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Most certainly I am biased (since I made all of the decisions) but I think that this is a roster that not only makes it to the playoffs, but makes it beyond the first round. What do you think?

The following table summarizes the player composition of the Final-53 (Returnees, Free Agents, Draftees) for the entire team and for each major component ... offense, defense and special teams.

FINAL-53 ROSTER COMPOSITION

Special

Final-53

Offense

Defense

Teams

Roster

Percent

Returnees (incl Extensions)

17

21

3

41

78%

Free Agents

3

2

0

5

9%

Draftees

4

3

0

7

13%

24

26

3

53

100%


Finally, I have included a table which summarizes the projected financial impact of all of the proposed roster changes. All existing contract and draft class pool amounts come from OverTheCap.com. Beyond that, my contract assumptions are as follows:

Contracts Assumed for Players Extended

OG Brandon Fusco -- 1 year / $ 1.5 million
DL Tank Carradine -- 3 years / $ 8.25 million
DL/LB Cassius Marsh -- 2 years / $ 2.25 million
LB Brock Coyle -- 2 years / $ 3.75 million
S Eric Reid -- 2 years / $ 11.0 million
CB Leon Hall -- 2 years / $ 2.25 million

Contracts Assumed for Free Agents:

QB Jimmy Garoppolo -- 6 years / $ 150 million / $ 25 million APY / $ 75 million guaranteed
WR Sammy Watkins -- 5 years / $ 50 million / $ 10 million APY / $ 25 million guaranteed
TE Cameron Brate -- 3 years / $ 15 million / $ 5 million APY / $ 7 million guaranteed
C Weston Richburg -- 4 years / $ 24 million / $ 6 million APY / $ 10 million guaranteed
CB Tremaine Johnson -- 4 years / $ 60 million / $ 15 million APY / $ 25 million guaranteed
E Ziggy Ansah -- 2 years / $ 24 million / $ 12 million APY / $ 12 million guaranteed

In ALL cases I have used the Niners' typical contract model for allocating component pieces ... signing bonus, roster bonuses, workout bonuses, incentives, remaining salary pieces providing for annual increases, and total guaranteed money as appropriate for the particular player. Obviously the comparative size of the pieces differs depending upon position, length of contract, age, etc. For example, guaranteed money for Garoppolo is assumed to be 50% of the total contract amount, while Brate's guarantee was assumed at 40%. The result is that a single year's compensation as a percentage of the total contract value can vary from 14% (first year of Garoppolo's 6-year contract) to 55% (second year of Ansah's 2-year contract).

"Proposed Additional Dead Money" is the total of all payments of guarantees remaining to players assumed to be part of the final cuts ... WR Robinson, WR Burbridge, OG Beadles, LB Harold, LB Gilbert, and S Jones. Once again, these amounts come from OverTheCap.com. All other players cut have no further guaranteed money due to them.
.
.

PROJECTED SALARY CAP TABLE

(In Thousands)

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Offense Players --

Existing Contracts

35,996

32,854

21,710

12,000

--

Garoppolo

20,500

22,000

23,500

26,500

28,000

Other Extensions

1,500

--

--

--

--

Free Agents

17,200

19,700

21,850

18,050

12,200

Sub-Total -- Offense

75,196

74,554

67,060

56,550

40,200

Defensive Players --

Existing Contracts

36,032

34,378

28,347

6,550

--

Extensions

11,250

13,250

3,000

--

--

Free Agents

22,050

27,700

16,250

18,000

--

Sub-Total -- Defense

69,332

75,328

47,597

24,550

--

Special Teams Players --

Existing Contracts

4,164

--

--

--

--

Total

148,692

149,882

114,657

81,100

40,200

Est. Draft Class Salary Pool

8,207

Existing Dead Money

15,055

Proposed Added Dead Money

1,093

Final Total

173,047

Estimated Cap Limit

178,000

(Over)/Under Cap

4,953


Obviously we have no clue which players will be extended and for how long and for how much, or which free agents, if any, will be signed and for how long and for how much. My objective with this series of articles was simply to speculate some what-ifs to see how much might be achievable if Lynch/Peters/Shanahan went all out in continuing to build the team. I assumed nothing beyond this ... no subsequent extensions beyond those just listed. On that basis you can see what the run-off rate of cap costs would be for all existing and these projected contracts. Form you own conclusions.

I hope that all of you enjoyed reading and discussing these pieces as much as I enjoyed researching and analyzing the data and information and writing the articles.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.