Building the 2018 Final-53 ................................ Final Cuts / Final-53 / P Squad (Part 6 of 6)

Overview of the entire article ...

Step 1. Decisions on Our Free Agents

Step 2. Veteran Additions ... IR Returns and Free Agent Additions

Step 3. Prospective Player Trades

Step 4. Resulting Draft Needs and Alternative Draft Strategies

Step 5. 2018 Mock Draft

Step 6. Projected Final Cuts / 2018 Final-53 / Practice Squad

******************************************************************************************************************************

Let's take a moment to review where we are in this series of articles:

In Step 1. we sorted through our pending free agents and ended up retaining 10 (including Garoppolo, Carradine and Reid) and letting 11 walk (including Hyde, Kilgore and Dontae Johnson).
In Step 2. we evaluated potential free agents from other teams and chose to add 5 veteran players to provide immediate upgrades at five positions, three on offense (C Weston Richburg, WR Sammy Watkins, TE Cameron Brate) and two on defense (CB Trumaine Johnson and E Ziggy Ansah).
In Step 3. we opted to trade two of our veteran players who weren't good scheme fits any longer and who were about to become excessively expensive for their expected contribution to the team ... DB Jimmie Ward and DL Arik Armstead. In return we received fourth- and third-round draft picks respectively.
In Step 4. we developed a "net needs list", reflecting draft needs after those eliminated with the return of players from IR and the addition of players in free agency (including the extended QB Jimmy Garoppolo). We then compared a list of prospects likely available at Pick #9/10 in the draft to that "net needs list" and determined that a trade-down draft strategy was probably most appropriate for the circumstances. Then we identified the optimum trade partners to acquire the picks that could best fit the net-needs list developed.
In Step 5. we executed the appropriate draft-pick trades and selected the prospects that provided the best fits and values for our needs in the draft:

E Marcus Davenport (Texas - San Antonio)

OG Billy Price (Ohio State)

CB Quenton Meeks (Stanford)

OT Jamarco Jones (Ohio State)

WR Jaleel Scott (New Mexico State)

RB Justin Jackson (Northwestern)

ILB Nick DeLuca (North Dakota State)

And 2 additional players as BPAs

.

With the signing of a number of additional unrestricted veteran free agents and undrafted rookie free agents we filled out the 90-man off-season roster for participation in OTAs and Training Camp.

We now move forward some four months in time to September 1, 2018 ... the date that NFL rosters must be pared down to the Final-53.

The following table summarizes all of my projections of the ultimate outcomes of roster decisions made at that time. Reading the table from left to right the columns present:

Position identity and expected number of players at that position in the Final-53

(Note that I have reduced the number of RBs on the Final-53 from 4 to 3 [with 2 more on the Practice Squad] in order to increase the number of OGs from the typical 3 to 4. I did this in order to allow time to sort out the troublesome OG position by having more options available to evaluate in game situations.)

Players available at the position at the end of the 2017 season ... including players on Injured Reserve and Practice Squad (i.e., the starting point)
Pending Free Agents and an indication as to whether the player was extended or not (from Step 1.)
Players signed in free agency (from Step 2.)
Players traded (from Step 3.)
2018 draftees (from Step 5.)
Players cut to reach the Final-53 limit
Projected 2018 Final-53 roster
Categorical data: * indicates presumed starters; PS indicates players cut but reclaimed and assigned to the 10-man Practice Squad.

	2017	Extend	Free			Final
Position	Roster	(or Not)	Agents	Traded	Draftees	Cuts	Final-53

QB (2)	Garoppolo	Garoppolo					Garoppolo	*
	Beathard						Beathard
	Mullen					(Mullen)		PS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB (1)	Juszczyk						Juszczyk	*
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RB (3)	Hyde	(Hyde)
	Breida						Breida	*
	McNichols					(McNichols)		PS
	Williams						Williams	*
	Mostert	Mostert				(Mostert)		PS
					Jackson		Jackson
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WR (6)	Goodwin						Goodwin
	Murphy	(Murphy)
	Bourne						Bourne
	Robinson					(Robinson)
	Taylor						Taylor	*
	McCaffrey					(McCaffrey)
	Garcon						Garcon	*
	Burbridge					(Burbridge)
	Bolden					(Bolden)		PS
	Carter					(Carter)
			Watkins				Watkins	*
					Scott		Scott
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TE (3)	Kittle						Kittle	*
	Celek						Celek
	Paulsen	(Paulsen)
	Hikutini					(Hikutini)		PS
	Wick					(Wick)
			Brate				Brate
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OT (3)	Staley						Staley	*
	Brown						Brown	*
	Gilliam	Gilliam				(Gilliam)
	Williams					(Williams)		PS
					Jones		Jones
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OG (4)	Tomlinson						Tomlinson
	Fusco	Fusco					Fusco
	Beadles					(Beadles)
	Garnett						Garnett	*
	Flynn					(Flynn)
	Hunt					(Hunt)
					Price		Price	*
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
C (2)	Kilgore	(Kilgore)
	Barnes	(Barnes)
	Magnuson						Magnuson
			Richburg				Richburg	*
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
								6 PS

	2017	Extend	Free			Final
Position	Roster	(or Not)	Agents	Traded	Draftees	Cuts	Final-53

NT (2)	Mitchell						Mitchell	*
	DJ Jones						DJ Jones
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DT (3)	Buckner						Buckner	*
	Blair						Blair
	Day						Day
	Douzable	(Douzable)
	C. Jones	(C. Jones)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
END (2)	Thomas						Thomas	*
	Carradine	Carradine					Carradine
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEO (3)	Dumervil						Dumervil
	Lynch	(Lynch)
	Armstead			(Armstead)
			Ansah				Ansah	*
					Davenport		Davenport	*
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAM (2)	Harold					(Harold)
	Taumoepenu					(Taumoepenu)		PS
	Marsh	Marsh					Marsh	*
	Watson						Watson
	Newsom					(Newsom)		PS
	Gilbert					(Gilbert)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MIKE (2)	Foster						Foster	*
	Coyle	Coyle					Coyle
	Nzeocha					(Nzeocha)
					DeLuca	(DeLuca)		PS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WILL (2)	Smith						Smith	*
	Lee						Lee
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SS (2)	Reid	Reid					Reid
	Tartt						Tartt	*
	James					(James)		PS
	Exum	(Exum)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FS (2)	Colbert						Colbert	*
	McCoil						McCoil
	Ward			(Ward)
	Don Jones					(Don Jones)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CB (6)	Witherspoon						Witherspoon	*
	D Johnson	(Johnson)
	Williams						Williams	*
	Hall	Hall					Hall
	Mabin						Mabin
	Powell	(Powell)
	Jackson	(Jackson)
			T.Johnson				T.Johnson	*
					Meeks		Meeks
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
								4 PS

K (1)	Gould						Gould	*
P (1)	Pinion						Pinion	*
LS (1)	Nelson						Nelson	*
								10 PS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Most certainly I am biased (since I made all of the decisions) but I think that this is a roster that not only makes it to the playoffs, but makes it beyond the first round. What do you think?

The following table summarizes the player composition of the Final-53 (Returnees, Free Agents, Draftees) for the entire team and for each major component ... offense, defense and special teams.

FINAL-53 ROSTER COMPOSITION
			Special	Final-53
	Offense	Defense	Teams	Roster	Percent
Returnees (incl Extensions)	17	21	3	41	78%
Free Agents	3	2	0	5	9%
Draftees	4	3	0	7	13%
	24	26	3	53	100%

Finally, I have included a table which summarizes the projected financial impact of all of the proposed roster changes. All existing contract and draft class pool amounts come from OverTheCap.com. Beyond that, my contract assumptions are as follows:

Contracts Assumed for Players Extended

OG Brandon Fusco -- 1 year / $ 1.5 million

DL Tank Carradine -- 3 years / $ 8.25 million

DL/LB Cassius Marsh -- 2 years / $ 2.25 million

LB Brock Coyle -- 2 years / $ 3.75 million

S Eric Reid -- 2 years / $ 11.0 million

CB Leon Hall -- 2 years / $ 2.25 million

Contracts Assumed for Free Agents:

QB Jimmy Garoppolo -- 6 years / $ 150 million / $ 25 million APY / $ 75 million guaranteed

WR Sammy Watkins -- 5 years / $ 50 million / $ 10 million APY / $ 25 million guaranteed

TE Cameron Brate -- 3 years / $ 15 million / $ 5 million APY / $ 7 million guaranteed

C Weston Richburg -- 4 years / $ 24 million / $ 6 million APY / $ 10 million guaranteed

CB Tremaine Johnson -- 4 years / $ 60 million / $ 15 million APY / $ 25 million guaranteed

E Ziggy Ansah -- 2 years / $ 24 million / $ 12 million APY / $ 12 million guaranteed

In ALL cases I have used the Niners' typical contract model for allocating component pieces ... signing bonus, roster bonuses, workout bonuses, incentives, remaining salary pieces providing for annual increases, and total guaranteed money as appropriate for the particular player. Obviously the comparative size of the pieces differs depending upon position, length of contract, age, etc. For example, guaranteed money for Garoppolo is assumed to be 50% of the total contract amount, while Brate's guarantee was assumed at 40%. The result is that a single year's compensation as a percentage of the total contract value can vary from 14% (first year of Garoppolo's 6-year contract) to 55% (second year of Ansah's 2-year contract).

"Proposed Additional Dead Money" is the total of all payments of guarantees remaining to players assumed to be part of the final cuts ... WR Robinson, WR Burbridge, OG Beadles, LB Harold, LB Gilbert, and S Jones. Once again, these amounts come from OverTheCap.com. All other players cut have no further guaranteed money due to them.

PROJECTED SALARY CAP TABLE
(In Thousands)
	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Offense Players --
Existing Contracts	35,996	32,854	21,710	12,000	--
Garoppolo	20,500	22,000	23,500	26,500	28,000
Other Extensions	1,500	--	--	--	--
Free Agents	17,200	19,700	21,850	18,050	12,200
Sub-Total -- Offense	75,196	74,554	67,060	56,550	40,200
Defensive Players --
Existing Contracts	36,032	34,378	28,347	6,550	--
Extensions	11,250	13,250	3,000	--	--
Free Agents	22,050	27,700	16,250	18,000	--
Sub-Total -- Defense	69,332	75,328	47,597	24,550	--
Special Teams Players --
Existing Contracts	4,164	--	--	--	--

Total	148,692	149,882	114,657	81,100	40,200
Est. Draft Class Salary Pool	8,207
Existing Dead Money	15,055
Proposed Added Dead Money	1,093

Final Total	173,047

Estimated Cap Limit	178,000

(Over)/Under Cap	4,953

Obviously we have no clue which players will be extended and for how long and for how much, or which free agents, if any, will be signed and for how long and for how much. My objective with this series of articles was simply to speculate some what-ifs to see how much might be achievable if Lynch/Peters/Shanahan went all out in continuing to build the team. I assumed nothing beyond this ... no subsequent extensions beyond those just listed. On that basis you can see what the run-off rate of cap costs would be for all existing and these projected contracts. Form you own conclusions.

I hope that all of you enjoyed reading and discussing these pieces as much as I enjoyed researching and analyzing the data and information and writing the articles.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

FanPost

Building the 2018 Final-53 ................................ Final Cuts / Final-53 / P Squad (Part 6 of 6)

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