So this is part of a project that started when I began to see a lot of traffic about how the Niners should draft Saquon Barkley with the ninth or tenth (we now know ninth) overall pick of the 2018 draft.
And be aware I am now also working with the whole signing of Jerick McKinnon in Free Agency thing, not that selecting Barkley is completely off the table but highly unlikely. This has become a fun(ish) exercise.
Whilst I have no knowledge of Saquon Barkley or his ability, I have to say I was aghast. Why would the Niners waste such draft capital on a running back, what an utter waste. I know what you are thinking, think about all those great running backs drafted early ie. Adrian Peterson and I have to think "who remembers the Vikings stunning Superbowl victories and those amazing playoff runs?" No-one because they are not a thing.
Ok LaDalian Tomlinson, he was great and yes, yes he was, but the Chargers didn’t win a Superbowl. So I say "what about Ronnie Brown, Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden and the long list of dubious high draft pick Running Backs". Serviceable at best but no SB rings. Nope, no way, no Running Back high in the draft. They could be a great player but teams who draft Running Backs in the first Round and particularly early in the first round, don’t win Superbowls.
But how do I prove this argument. Numbers, lets look at all the first round running backs and review them, as noted above there are some great running backs, but what did they do for the team that drafted them, you know the team that spent the high pick. And what do I have to compare that to? There are plenty of other draft busts in different positions, isn’t there a lot of risk there too?
So let pull all the first round draft picks since... oh would you look at the Janikowski retired leaving Tom Brady as the only remaining player from the 2000 draft class, why not start there. So I did that, I got the players from the first rounds of the draft from 2000-2017. Then I need a way to value the player, for the team. Well the goal is to win the Superbowl but just making it to the Superbowl is impressive too. The secondary goal is being in the playoffs, so you have a shot at the big game, so we need that and then of course seasons played, did the team at least get a player who lasted a long time with the team, they won’t stick around if it’s a poor pick.
But how do we measure the pick vs the player vs the way a team uses him. Some players are great and great value for their pick but the team that drafted them was unable to utilise them properly. Simple measure, arguably meaningless but these are first round picks and should be on the list, lets say probowls. Now we need to get that information for a career as well as for the team they play on.
Well that was a month ago and its taken me that long to collect the data to 2008 (hey, I am a busy guy). But I stopped there in the quest as I have a measure that makes sense. So I figure play 5 seasons, thats worth a bonus and 10 years, that too and then from 2008 onwards, you can’t have played 10 seasons yet, so lets pause and see what I got. Well....
I crunched the numbers and produced the data. I awarded a point per season. 1 bonus point for 5 seasons played, a further 2 bonus points for 10 seasons and 2 further bonus points if they played over 5 seasons and their whole career for the team making the pick. I gave 1 point per playoff game, I gave 3 points for appearing in a superbowl and 5 for winning it (so 8 really if you won – but that’s the big prize, a player who gets a team there is worth it). For the pro bowls I say first rounders SHOULD BE THERE – 2 points per pro bowl.
Oh and the data I got was from pro football reference so season is 'seasons played' not necessarily seasons with the team. So rookie QBs sitting their first season get a little harshly treated. As does missing a season due to injury...but it’s about what you give a team.
So you can argue with the metrics and believe me I am arguing with myself, but generally they prove sound.
After all is said and done my top scoring pick in the draft from 2000-2008 is....drum roll....
Pick 21 of the 2004 draft, for the New England Patriots
Vince Wilfork NT out of Miami – 72 points
13 Seasons, 24 playoff games, appeared in 4 Superbowls, won 2 Superbowls and 5 times a pro-bowler.
Ah-ha!! I hear you say, the line at the top says Ben Roethlisberger and it does, because Wilfork played 2 seasons with the Texans and scored only 67 of those points for the Patriots who drafted him. So step forward
Pick 11 of the 2004 draft, for the Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger QB out of Miami (OH) – 71 Points
14 Seasons, 21 playoff games, appeared in 3 Superbowls, won 2 and 6 times a pro-bowler all for the Steelers. That is my top first round draft pick 2000-08
For context, among 287 first round picks (Patriots lost a pick for spygate), the average is....20 points, 15 for the drafting team. Thank you Rashaun Woods, your 1 point really dragging down the average
Oh and the running backs, more to follow later, there are still numbers to crunch