Expectations are high for the San Francisco 49ers heading into the 2018 season, and we’ve seen the team’s win total wager double from 2017. A year ago this time, you could be on the 49ers at 4.5 wins. They exceeded that courtesy of the Jimmy Garoppolo-led win streak, and this offseason they were installed at 8.5 wins. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook even went as high as nine wins in their opening number.
Now that the NFL is through mandatory minicamp, and more importantly, the bulk of offseason roster transactions, we are seeing some movement on the lines. It would appear bettors are fading the team to a certain degree. It is not a large fade, but it’s enough to move the numbers.
50 days after hitting the board, these are the 7 biggest season win total moves @LVSuperBook:@Lions from 8 to 7.5@49ers from 9 to 8.5@Giants from 6.5 to 7@Vikings from 9.5 to 10@MiamiDolphins from 6 to 6.5@RamsNFL from 9.5 to 10@Chargers from 9 to 9.5— Joe Fortenbaugh (@JoeFortenbaugh) June 19, 2018
It’s not at all surprising the SuperBook dropped the 49ers from nine wins to 8.5 wins. Most offshore sportsbooks have held steady at 8.5 wins this offseason. The over has been favored for them, but the total was still a half game down.
But, speaking of those favored overs, that has been adjusted. Back in May, Bovada had the 49ers win total set at 8.5 wins, with the OVER at -130 and the UNDER at even money. That mean, you had to bet $130 on the OVER to win $100, but only $100 on the UNDER to win $100. That means the OVER was favored. The odds have since changed, with the OVER set at -125 and the UNDER set at -105. The OVER is still favored, but it is less of a favorite.
At Betonline.ag, we’ve seen some similar movement. They opened the OVER on 8.5 wins at -145 and the UNDER at +125. Now, the OVER has been dropped to -130 and the UNDER has been bumped to +110.
These are not monster changes, but they would suggest money is coming in on the UNDER more than the OVER — or at least some notable wagers. Since the numbers first opened after the schedule release, the only notable news for the 49ers was Reuben Foster’s legal situation getting cleared up (NFL discipline remains TBD). The team was active in the draft, but I don’t think that was enough to make any adjustments. My guess is it is related to fading a team with high expectations that some people might not want to jump on for the time being.