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Picks against the spread for Week 3 NFL games

The San Francisco 49ers are 6.5-point road underdog against the Kansas City Chiefs to open the season. Time for my Westgate SuperContest picks, as well as my picks for the remaining games.

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The 2018 NFL season is officially in full swing, which means regular season betting is back. I’m back for another year of picks in the Westgate SuperContest. SB Nation’s partners over at Odds Shark are sponsoring my entry again. The contest requires selecting 5 games each week and picking them against the spread. After a season-opening 4-0-1 performance, Week 2 was a disaster, as I went winless in the contest. I was 7-9 on my overall picks against the spread, so it was clearly some bad decision-making for the contest.

I did not touch the 49ers in Week 2, but I’ve decided to go for the reverse jinx in Week 3. I think they lose by just under two touchdowns to the Chiefs, but maybe they can surprise me and spring the upset. Things have changed drastically since the start of the season. Expectations on the 49ers have sunk while the Chiefs are now the hot team of choice.

Everybody is betting on Kansas City, but they enter Week 3 facing an interesting trend. Since 2003, teams that are playing at home in Week 3 after playing back-to-back road games have gone 9-26-2 ATS in the Week 3 game. I was tempted to go with the 49ers just based on that, but I’m not so sure given how well this Chiefs offense has been performing. And so, for the SuperContest I’m taking the Chiefs at -6.5

Here are my five SuperContest picks for Week 3.

Saints (+3) over FALCONS
CHIEFS (-6.5) over 49ers
Bengals (+3) over PANTHERS
WASHINGTON (+2.5) over Packers
Giants (+6.5) over TEXANS

The Chiefs are the only favorite I am taking this week. I’ve decided to invest in some dogs in Week 3, even going back to the well with the Giants. They are facing a Texans squad dealing with the above mentioned home opener after back-to-back road games, and also this interesting trend, according to the Action Network: Since 2003, teams that fail to cover the spread in back-to-back games to start the season have gone 65-51 (56%) ATS in Week 3. So, I’m foolishly going with the Giants a second straight week.

I went 7-9 overall in Week 2. Here are all my picks for Week 3:

BROWNS vs. Jets (+3): Browns — WIN
FALCONS vs. Saints (+3): Saints
CHIEFS vs. 49ers (+6.5): Chiefs
DOLPHINS vs. Raiders (+3): Raiders
VIKINGS vs. Bills (+16.5): Vikings
EAGLES vs. Colts (+6.5): Colts
WASHINGTON vs. Packers (-2.5): Washington
PANTHERS vs. Bengals (+3): Bengals
JAGUARS vs. Titans (+9.5): Jaguars
RAVENS vs. Broncos (+5.5): Broncos
TEXANS vs. Giants (+6.5): Giants
RAMS vs. Chargers (+7): Rams
CARDINALS vs. Bears (-6): Cardinals
SEAHAWKS vs. Cowboys (+2): Seahawks
LIONS vs. Patriots (-7): Patriots
BUCCANEERS vs. Steelers (-1): Bucs