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Picks against the spread for Week 4 NFL games

The San Francisco 49ers are 6.5-point road underdog against the Kansas City Chiefs to open the season. Time for my Westgate SuperContest picks, as well as my picks for the remaining games.

The 2018 NFL season is officially in full swing, which means regular season betting is back. I’m back for another year of picks in the Westgate SuperContest. SB Nation’s partners over at Odds Shark are sponsoring my entry again. The contest requires selecting 5 games each week and picking them against the spread. After a disastrous 0-5 Week 2, I bounced back with a 4-1 performance, and now sit at 8-6-1 for the season. I was 11-5 on my overall picks against the spread, which were helped by taking some underdogs.

This week, I’ve decided to take the points with the San Francisco 49ers. After losing Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers dropped from expected 4.5 point underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers to actual 10.5 point underdogs. In some places you can get 11.5, although for the SuperContest, I could only get 10. I am rolling the dice on Matt Breida being available for the game, as I think that is slightly pertinent to the proceedings. However, I think this offense can still do enough against an awful Chargers defense that this remains competitive. The 49ers defense has its share of holes, particularly with Richard Sherman and Jaquiski Tartt sidelined, but I still think the team can stay in this. Feel free to laugh when this blows up in my face.

Here are my five SuperContest picks for Week 4.

COWBOYS (-3) over Lions
PACKERS (-9.5) over Bills
Eagles (-4) over TITANS
49ers (+10) over CHARGERS
Ravens (+3) over STEELERS

The Lions are getting a lot of love, but I think their win over the Patriots is leading to a bit of an overreaction. The Cowboys offense is a mess, but I think we see them get it done. The Packers are coming off a tough loss to Washington, but Aaron Rodgers is 23-11 against the spread coming off a loss, and 9-5 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown in this spot. I’ll take my chances.

The 49ers are one of three road teams. Philadelphia gets Alshon Jeffery back, while Marcus Mariota remains shaky at this point. And I think people are thinking Pittsburgh is better than they are following that win over Tampa Bay. Baltimore is proving a live one, so I’m taking the points with the Ravens.

I went 11-5 overall in Week 3. Here are all my picks for Week 4:

RAMS vs. Vikings (+7): Vikings — PUSH
PATRIOTS vs. Dolphins (+6.5): Patriots
COLTS vs. Texans (+1): Texans
FALCONS vs. Bengals (+5): Bengals
PACKERS vs. Bills (+9.5): Packers
COWBOYS vs. Lions (+3): Cowboys
JAGUARS vs. Jets (+7.5): Jaguars
BEARS vs. Buccaneers (+3): Bears
TITANS vs. Eagles (-4): Eagles
CARDINALS vs. Seahawks (-3): Cardinals
RAIDERS vs. Browns (+2.5): Raiders
CHARGERS vs. 49ers (+10): 49ers
GIANTS vs. Saints (-3.5): Saints
STEELERS vs. Ravens (+3): Ravens
BRONCOS vs. Chiefs (-5): Broncos