We are still a couple weeks away from Super Bowl 53, but we already have initial odds available for Super Bowl 54. Plenty will change on this, but it offers a baseline for analyzing how 49ers assessments progress through the year.
The 49ers are installed by the Westgate SuperBook at 40/1 to win Super Bowl 54 next season. A year ago this time, the Westgate installed the 49ers at 20/1 to win Super Bowl 53 this year. The Rams are the favorite at 6/1, followed by the Chiefs (7/1), Saints (8/1), and Patriots (10/1).
Super Bowl odds are not exactly predictive, since there will be teams that come out of nowhere, and some expected quality teams that fall apart. However, it does give us a good idea of perceptions about next season. We’re back to take a look at the Super Bowl odds for all 13 of the 49ers opponents next season.
Here are the Super Bowl odds for those teams, ordered by most to least favored.
At 40/1, the 49ers have better odds than four of those teams, which covers five total games (two matchups with the Cardinals). A year ago, the 49ers had better Super Bowl odds than nine of their opponents on the 2018 slate. The 49ers are expected to bounce back with Jimmy Garoppolo, but how much is not entirely clear.
As the offseason progresses, we’ll see more about the strength of schedule for each team. The problem is that it’s usually based the previous season’s record for each team. There is something to take from that about how the team performed in 2018, but using it to predict what will happen in 2019 is not all that useful. Using Super Bowl futures, and then win totals in April and May gives us at least a little more of a thought as to a baseline for analyzing what the schedule looks like.
By comparison, here is what the 49ers 2018 opponents looked like on the Super Bowl odds list, followed by their eventual record. Some teams were getting the right kind of odds, but plenty ended up over- or under-performing their odds by a long shot.
Vikings: 10/1 — 8-7-1
Packers: 10/1 — 6-9-1
Rams: 18/1 — 13-3
Seahawks 18/1 — 10-6
Chargers: 30/1 — 12-4
Chiefs: 30/1 — 12-4
Raiders: 30/1 — 4-12
Broncos: 40/1 — 6-10
Cardinals: 40/1 — 3-13
Lions: 40/1 — 6-10
Buccaneers: 40/1 — 5-11
Giants: 60/1 — 5-11
Bears: 100/1 — 12-4