With the mock draft season about to get started, I wanted to put to rest a trend that is sure to come up over the next few months - Teams DO NOT trade into the top 5 for a Defensive Player. It DOES NOT (except once) happen.
We are not trading up to #1 for Bosa (or Allen). No team is going to trade up with us to select any of the three Williams.
Teams only trade up to #2 for QBs, that is all. Even in years with weak QB classes, when Clowney and Garrett went #1, no one traded up for them.
To prove my point, let's now look at the past couple drafts to see trades into the Top 5:
2018: Jets traded up to #3 for a QB. (Note, the Browns picked a defensive player at 4, but that trade was over a year old.)
2017: Bears traded up to #2 for a QB. Titans traded up to #5 for a WR.
2016: Trades to picks 1 and 2. Two QBs were taken with the top 2 picks. (Other notable trades: Titans traded up to 8 to get a Tackle, and Bears traded up to 9 to get a LB).
2015: No trades in the top 5. The first trade was that Chargers swapping first round picks (15 and 17) with the 49ers to get Gordon.
2014: Bills traded to #4 to grab Watkins. Browns and Vikings swapped picks 7 and 8, a CB and LB were taken.
2013: Dolphins traded up to #3 to grab Dion Jordan (Whoops). Also Rams traded up to #8 for Austin.
2012: Crazy year, picks 2 - 7 were all traded at some point. Probably the most relevant example is that Browns and Vikings swapped picks 3 and 4. Jags and Buc also traded picks 5 and 7. But no D player was taken in the Top 5.
2011: Nothing in top 5, but this is the year that Falcons traded up 20 picks to #6 to grab Jones.
If we are going to trade back from #2, it would be with a team trading up to grab Haskins. However, considering the first 3 teams picking don't need a QB (possibly even top 5), I doubt that will even happen.
Unfortunately, the #2 pick just doesn't have the value this year compared to what is has had in the past. I am sure the team will field some crappy offers for the pick by teams just wanting first picks of players, but I believe we are staying put.
Thanks for reading, go Niners!