49ers open up as 3-point underdogs to the Saints

The San Francisco 49ers have played their fair share of thrilling games this season. It’s either been a blowout, or the games have come down to the final couple of possessions in 2019 for the Niners. The excitement should continue over the next month and beyond. Week 14’s matchup against the New Orleans Saints should be another exciting game between two of the top teams in the NFC. Both teams are 10-2. Both have lost once at home and on the road.

The Saints are riding a three-game winning streak and are at home, but Vegas only has them as -2.5 point favorites. That number opened up at -3 but has dropped a half a point in only a couple of days. The total on the game is 44.5, so Vegas is expecting a 23-21 Saints win. You are gifted three points for being the home team, so the 49ers would likely be favored in a neutral setting. Here are the home/road splits, his numbers in November, and how Drew Brees has played in early games in 2019:

Now let’s do the same for Jimmy Garoppolo using his home/road splits, last four games, and stats with an early kickoff:

Garoppolo has four fumbles in the last four games and has lost three of them. Brees hasn’t lost any. The only stat that’s better at home for Jimmy G is the yards per game, and that’s because he’s throwing it more. He’s taken half the sacks on the road in the same amount of games. That’s interesting, but noteworthy, considering the Saints are tied for sixth in adjusted sack rate and No. 1 in pressure rate at 37%, that’s two percent more than the second-place Cowboys.

We’ll get into more numbers and matchups as the week goes on. This is a big one for both teams.