Fooch and I are back with another week of gambling picks. Last week we both went 2-2. Each week, we’ll give you our take on the San Francisco 49ers game, and three other games. Here’s what we have for this week.
Fooch’s note: I’d like to open with a common refrain for my three picks against the spread. I don’t have the numbers for last season, but in the five seasons prior to that, teams that lost on the road in their opener and played at home in Week 2 covered the spread 65 percent of the time. A good gambler will be in the mid to high 50s at best consistently. If you can give me something that could win 65 percent of the time, I’m gonna take it more often than not. And so...
49ers vs. -1.5 Bengals
Fooch: I’d love to pick the 49ers every week, but this is a tough turnaround. I don’t worry about the circadian rhythms and sleep issues given that the 49ers hung around Youngstown this past week. Maybe this is also a version of a reverse jinx. Nick Bosa and Dee Ford could do some serious damage to Andy Dalton. Joe Mixon is a question mark for this game, and the Bengals won’t have A.J. Green. In spite of all that, I’m sticking with the numbers and hoping I’m wrong.
49ers +1.5 vs. Bengals
KP: The Bengals had plenty of yards against Seattle, but there was some fools gold mixed in there. John Ross caught a flea-flicker, and on his long touchdown before the half, the safety botched the play. I do think the Bengals will have success throwing the ball over the intermediate part of the field, but they’ll settle for field goals, while the 49ers score touchdowns.
Fooch: I’d love this even more as a first-half under, but I’m not seeing a number yet at my sportsbook of choice (if you can get 22.5, take it). This series has gone under seven of the last nine games. The Packers are still trying to figure out LaFleur’s offense. I think we see a relatively low scoring game in this one.
K.P.: The Bills were my best bet last week. This under is my best bet for Week 2. The Vikings threw the ball ten times last week. Mike Zimmer went out and got an offensive coordinator that wants to do what he wants, which is run the ball. The familiarity in this one should make it a low scoring game, and I think it’s similar to the Thursday Night Football game from Week 1 between the Packers/Bears.
Fooch: The Falcons are undervalued after getting thumped in Minnesota. Philly should have lost to Washington. I think we see the Falcons look much better at home, and their offense will give Philly too many problems.
Dallas/Washington Under 46.5
KP: I’m guessing there will be an overreaction to the Cowboys having their way on offense with the Giants last week. I think the overreaction will come from Jay Gruden giving up on the run last week and he tries to slow it down. Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper are a great duo, but most of their big plays have come against the Giants. This one should be sloppy.
Fooch: The Seahawks play down to opponents, so it would not surprise me to see an improved performance after barely beating the Bengals. And yet, Pittsburgh is undervalued coming off a whupping at the hands of the Patriots. Pittsburgh has its share of issues, but they’re not that bad. It’s more like New England’s gonna be great, and Bill Belichick had all offseason to prepare. Look for a better outing in Week 2 from the Steelers.
KP: The difference in talent between the two teams is evident, but division games where the home team gets a touchdown is something I can’t pass up. Everything points to the Chiefs. Gareon Conley is out so that the Raiders will start a cornerback for the first time. The Chiefs were ridiculously efficient on offense, despite missing Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs average more points on the road than they do at home under Andy Reid. I was impressed with Oakland’s gameplan on Monday Night, and think they keep it within a touchdown.