I’m not sure if you’ve heard yet, but Jimmy Garoppolo used to play for Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. Can you believe it? And as luck would have it, the 49ers are on the road in New England this week for the first time since Jimmy Garoppolo got traded. What are the odds, right?
We all knew that storyline was going to dominate this week, but when it comes to sports betting, is that stuff overrated? How much does Vegas take reunions like that into account when trying to decide what to make the spread?
I talked with Sports Betting Dime’s Editor in Chief Matt McEwan earlier today, and he gave me the answer.
“There’s always a little bit of that. What the book’s intent is, is to get even money on both sides of the game. The toughest part of the book is opening up the line. They have to do their best to gauge the public perception. That’s really what setting a line is. How is the public going to view these two teams? Is the public considering Jimmy Garoppolo’s revenge? What goes into it for the fan, for the bettor - that’s what they need to consider. After that, money starts to kick in.”
While it may only be a small part of the calculations for gamblers, I have to think this game means more to Garoppolo than some random regular-season affair. Even though it’s perfectly reasonable to say that the Patriots did right by Jimmy by trading him to a team with a great offensive coach, the inescapable fact is that New England chose to keep 40-year-old Tom Brady when they could’ve handed the keys to the kingdom to Jimmy G. There has to be some part of him that wants to go out there and chuck three touchdowns in a blowout win.
Frankly, I’d be more worried if he wasn’t thinking that way.
Check out the rest of the podcast for Matt’s pick in the game, as well as his favorite bets for the rest of the games in Week 7.
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