The 5-3 Indianapolis Colts travel to Tennessee to take on the 6-2 Titans. The spread has bounced around a little on this game. The line opened up with the Colts as two-point underdogs. That’s swung in Indianapolis’s favor, and now they’re favored by a point. The total on this game is 49.
The Colts will have TY Hilton back at receiver. That should be a boost to an offense that only scored ten points a week ago. To their credit, the Colts were on the wrong side of bad luck last week. The Ravens returned a fumble for a touchdown around midfield. Baltimore also benefited from an “interception” from Marcus Peters. Indianapolis also failed to convert on a 4th & inches in Ravens territory.
With Hilton and Michael Pittman back in the lineup, the Colts should be healthy and ready to take advantage of a Titans defense that has struggled all season. Tennessee is 20th in defensive EPA per play and success rate. They’re also 18th in DOVA. When you see who this team has played, those numbers are concerning.
Ryan Tannehill has played well, and their offense has been good this season. Losing left tackle Taylor Lewan to a torn ACL has put Tannehill under pressure, and that’s where the former Dolphin’s numbers tank. Tannehill’s QBR was sixth in the NFL for the first six weeks. Without Lewan, Tannehill ranks 28th in QBR these past two weeks.
The Colts have a strong defense, as they rank second in DVOA, fifth in EPA per play, and sixth in success rate. If you couldn’t tell by now, I like the Colts tonight.