The San Francisco 49ers aren’t eliminated from the playoffs yet, but a costly loss to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday all but dashed their postseason hopes. Football Outsiders updates their playoff odds each Tuesday, and the Niners’ odds changed by -6.9%. Football Outsiders gives the 49ers a 4.3% chance of making the playoffs this year.
At 4-6, San Francisco could ill afford to lose two more games this season if they plan to reach the postseason. With the Rams, Seahawks, Bills, and Cardinals still on the schedule, the 49ers would have to come away from those four games with one loss to have a chance. While the players and coaches are confident they can string together a few wins, the odds are not in their favor. FO gave the 49ers a 2.7% chance of capturing the final Wildcard spot. A 5-1 finish would likely be necessary.
Football Outsiders also gives a prediction on who would land a top-five pick. The 49ers currently have a 3.1% chance to land in the top-five. If the season ended today, San Francisco would select at No. 12 in the NFL Draft. If the Broncos beat the Dolphins and the Falcons beat the Saints (both unlikely), San Francisco would jump to No. 10 after Week 11.
We’ll continue to update the Niners’ playoff and draft odds as the season goes along.