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49ers strength of schedule is easier when you use Super Bowl odds

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SOS with Super Bowl odds is a better projection than using traditional Strength of schedule.

Super Bowl LIV - San Francisco 49ers v Kansas City Chiefs Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images

Back in February, we looked at the San Francisco 49ers strength of schedule heading into 2020 based on last year’s results. San Francisco had the fourth-toughest schedule. The NFC West is tough, and the 49ers out of division games include the Packers and Saints, two of the better teams in the NFC. The traditional strength of schedule uses the previous year’s record of a team’s upcoming 16 opponents to get a cumulative win percentage. Using Vegas odds gives us a better idea of what to expect in 2020 as opposed to looking at the win/loss column from the previous year.

Today, we’ll use post-draft Super Bowl odds from William Hill Sportsbook in Vegas. Our friends at Blogging the Boys put this together and shared the information for the rest of us to use. What they did was assign each team points from 1 to 32 based on their Super Bowl odds. Since the Chiefs are favored to win the Super Bowl, they received one point. The 49ers have the third-highest odds, so they received three points. From there, the average points for each team were calculated to determine each team’s strength of schedule. The higher number meant the tougher the schedule:

The 49ers “fell” six spots using Super Bowl odds as opposed to traditional strength of schedule. Save the Rams, each team in the division saw a negative change. That’s a good indication that 2020’s schedule will be easier as their opponents are projected to do worse than their 2019 record indicates.

San Francisco plays both the AFC and NFC East in 2020, arguably the two worst divisions in football. New England appears to be heading into the season with Jarett Stidham as their starter, and as well as their defense has played, nobody fears Josh Allen. Miami and New York had solid offseasons, but they’re likely a year away. The NFC East doesn’t need any explanation.

The NFL will release its schedule on Thursday at 5 p.m. PT. San Francisco’s home opponents: Philadelphia, Washington, Buffalo, Miami, and Green Bay. On the road, the Niners will face: Dallas, New England, New Orleans (eye roll), the Giants, and the Jets. Then each divisional opponent both at home and on the road.