The San Francisco 49ers are 2-3 and amid a three-game losing streak off their bye week. Their Week 7 matchup comes against an Indianapolis Colts team that’s 2-4 and just routed the Houston Texans 31-3.
The look-ahead line before the Colts victory Sunday on DraftKings Sportbook saw the 49ers at five—pint favorites. That number didn’t change, despite Indianapolis winning by 28 points. The line not moving tells you all you need to know about how Vegas views the Texans.
We’ll break this game down as the week goes along. Here’s a look at a few offensive stats between each team:
DVOA rank: 49ers, 11th - Colts, 20th
Yards per drive: 49ers, 9th - Colts 13th
Points per drive: 49ers, 14th - Colts, 19th
Turnovers per drive: 49ers, 20th -Colts 7th
Drive success rate: 49ers, 10th - Colts 13th
Third down conversion rate: 49ers, 24th - Colts, 17th
Red zone scoring percentage: 49ers, 2nd - Colts, 32nd
San Francisco has scored on ten of its 11 red-zone possessions. Scoring isn’t the issue. Getting inside of the 20 has been the problem. San Francisco is 28th in red zone attempts per game at 2.2.
Other than taking care of the ball, the Colts' offense is below-average across the board. Here’s a look at those same numbers on the defensive side of the ball:
DVOA rank: 49ers 16th - Colts 23rd
Yards per drive: Y49ers, 13th, Colts: 27th
Points per drive: 49ers, 15th - Colts, 26th
Turnovers per drive: 49ers, 31st - Colts, 5th
Drive Success rate: 49ers, 15th, - Colts, 28th
Third down conversion rate: 49ers, 6th - Colts, 14th
Red zone scoring percentage: 49ers, 26th - Colts, 23rd
Unlike the offense, the Niners' defense struggles to get stops when teams make it to the red area. The good news is San Francisco is 17th in red zone attempts after facing Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers, while the Colts are 22nd after facing Ryan Tannehill, Tua, Lamar, and Davis Mills in their past four games. One of those quarterbacks is unlike the other.
The saving grace for Indianapolis on defense has been their turnover luck. Aside from turnovers, the Colts are in the bottom ten in each stat outside of the third-down conversion rate. So, in theory, Jimmy Garoppolo and company should have a field day against a Colts unit that struggles to get off the field.
Odds/lines are subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.