If you were looking to make Sunday’s game a little more interesting, Michelle Magdziuk and I packed today’s Gold Digger’s podcast with tons of gambling and fantasy advice. Michelle is a researcher for the NFL Network and the Director of Content for Ball Blast Football, if you don’t know.
According to the DraftKings Sportsbook, the Niners are 4.5 point favorites against the Indianapolis Colts.
So here are three of the best bets you can make in the 49ers game this week.
Deebo Samuel over 4.5 receptions
Deebo has had more than 4.5 catches every week he’s played with Jimmy Garoppolo and actually had enough targets with Trey Lance in Week 5 to hit the over as well if they had connected. Deebo is clearly the featured option in this passing attack right now, especially with George Kittle injured. Now that Jimmy G. is back under center expect Samuel’s catches to jump right back up to where they were earlier this year.
The Colts don’t have a Jalen Ramsey-Esque lock-down defensive back on the roster when everyone is healthy, and they’re far from that in the secondary (as we’ll get into coming up). Deebo should continue his career year in this one.
Jimmy Garoppolo over 223.5 passing yards
Frankly speaking, 223.5 passing yards in today’s NFL is a pretty low number, and Garoppolo himself surpassed that total in two of the three games he’s started and finished this season. In six games this year, the Colts have allowed an average of 255.5 passing yards per game.
Not to mention the fact that Indianapolis’ secondary is pretty banged up right now. Terrific young safety Julian Blackmon has been lost for the year with a torn Achilles tendon, cornerback Rock Ya-Sin has been dealing with an ankle injury and missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, and opposite corner Xavier Rhodes was limited Thursday with an ankle injury of his own.
With an extra week to prepare, there’s no reason why Shanahan and Garoppolo shouldn’t be able to carve this defense up all night long. Rain or shine, any competent offense should be able to throw for 224 yards.
Jonathan Taylor under 63.5 rushing yards
Michelle felt more strongly about this one than I did, but her argument made sense. Taylor has only rushed for 64 yards or more three times this season, and two of those games were against Miami and Houston. Part of the issue is that the Colts don’t seem willing to use Taylor as much as they should be. He has yet to eclipse 16 carries in any game this season.
Furthermore, the 49ers have only allowed one player to gain more than 55 rushing yards against them, and that was Aaron Jones with 82 yards in Week 3 (and that took him 19 carries).
Even if the forecasted rain does lead to more opportunities from Taylor, he’s doing most of his damage against a strength of the 49ers defense, which is defending outside zone runs. So far this year, DeMeco Ryans’ defense is allowing just 2.8 yards per carry-on outside zone runs.
For more betting and fantasy advice, be sure to listen to The Gold Diggers podcast every Friday, and give the Niners Nation Podcast Network a follow while you’re at it.
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.