49ers open up as 6.5-point favorites over the Jaguars for Week 11

The overreactions in the NFL weekly are why we continue to tune in. One week, a team looks like they’re dead in the water with no hope. The next week, they’re on top of the world.

This week, the 49ers are the poster child. As of Sunday night, San Francisco opened up as 5-point favorites against a lowly Jaguars team on the road. After leaving no doubt in a 31-10 victory, the Niners are now 6.5-point favorites over Jacksonville over at DraftKings SportsBook. The total on the game is 45.5, which suggests San Francisco wins in the ballpark of 26-20.

If Jacksonville scores 20 points against this defense after they shut down the Rams, I can’t begin to think about what people will say about DeMeco Ryans.

The Jaguars are surprisingly effective through the air, considering their talent. A lot of credit goes to Trevor Lawrence. If you have yet to see him play yet, it’s evident that Lawrence is a special player. However, the talent around him leaves a lot to be desired. Jacksonville cannot run the ball. As a result, they get into obvious passing situations, and that’s where the 49ers' defensive line has to make them pay.

Youth on Jacksonville’s defense shows up every series. They are 28th in EPA per play, 22nd in success rate, and have allowed the sixth-most passing plays over 20 yards. Sunday should be another game where Jimmy Garoppolo has time to throw, and Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle create big plays with the ball in their hands.

We’ll break down the Jaguars more as the week goes on. I think one of the biggest questions, outside of traveling across the country and playing an early game, is whether the 49ers can get up for Jacksonville the same way they did for the Rams. That’s the sign of a great team.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.