If you were looking to make Sunday’s game a little more interesting, Michelle Magdziuk and I packed today’s Gold Digger’s podcast with tons of gambling and fantasy advice. Michelle is a researcher for the NFL Network and the Director of Content for Ball Blast Football, if you don’t know.
Jimmy Garoppolo under 1.5 passing touchdowns
I know what you’re thinking - Garoppolo has turned it up a notch and hit the over on this two straight weeks. While it’s true he has four touchdown passes in his last two games, let’s take a closer look. One of his touchdowns last week came on a 40-yard catch and run by Deebo Samuel on fourth down, and one the week before against the Cardinals came with the 49ers down 31-7 in the fourth quarter. Those aren’t exactly scenarios we’re likely to see in this game.
Throw in the fact that as bad as the Jaguars have been, they’ve only allowed 11 passing touchdowns in nine games so far this year. We’ve been telling you to fade Garoppolo’s 1.5 touchdown passes number all season long because it will ultimately payout over time. We’ve been right in five of the eight games Jimmy has played this year, and we’ll be right on Sunday.
Deebo Samuel over 73.5 receiving yards and 5.5 rushing yards
Deebo is a legitimate threat to win Offensive Player of the Year this season, and this number seems low. Seventeen games of that type of production would be less than 1,300 yards on the season, which would hardly be award-worthy. The bookies might be slow to adapt to the version of Deebo Samuel that actually catches passes on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage, but you shouldn’t be.
When it comes to the rushing total, all it will probably take to hit the over is one to two carries by Deebo. Given how successful Samuel was on the ground last week (7.2 yards per carry on five carries) and the muddy status of running back Elijah Mitchell, it’s likely Kyle Shanahan puts the ball in 19’s hands on the ground once again.
Dan Arnold over 43.5 receiving yards
Since coming to Jacksonville in the CJ Henderson trade earlier this season, Arnold has hit the over in four of his six games as a Jaguar - including three of the last four.
The Jags aren’t exactly stocked with better receiving options anywhere else right now. Plus, the 49ers could be up by multiple scores in this one which would open the door for some sweet, sweet garbage time yardage from Arnold that puts him over the top.
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