Two teams that are trending in opposite directions meet in Week 13. The Seattle Seahawks still have to face Washington’s Football Team on Monday night. Seattle is currently 3-7, having lost two in a row, with a -15 point differential. At 6-5 and riding a three-game winning streak, San Francisco has a +32 point differential.
The total on the game is 46. So, Vegas is expecting the 49ers to win with a score in the ballpark of 25-22. The Niners are 1-3 in the NFC West, so they need this win if it comes down to tiebreakers at the end of the season for playoff seedings with the Rams. With Deebo Samuel expected to miss some time, the offense will face a steep challenge.
Samuel is a rare positional player that might be worth a point when it comes to handicapping games. We’ll know more about his injury from Kyle Shanahan on Monday afternoon, but Ian Rapoport reported that Samuel’s expected to miss time.
Thankfully, the 49ers won’t need 30 points to beat Seattle. Not with the way the Seahawks offense has been. Since Week 5, Seattle is 28th in EPA per play and 22nd in success rate on offense. They are also in the bottom ten among explosive plays through the air and on the ground, ranking 22nd and 23rd, respectively.
If the Seahawks lose to Washington, we could see a team that’s given up as it would be Seattle’s eighth loss of the season. Add that with the fact the 49ers have revenge on their minds after an embarrassing home loss to their rivals earlier this season, and there’s no reason to believe the Niners lose this game.
But it’s a rivalry game. For as poorly as Russell Wilson has looked this season, he morphs into a top-five QB every time these two teams play. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett always find a way to make big plays. The good news for the 49ers is that this isn’t a letdown spot against your rival despite Seattle's record.