Last Sunday was the second time this season that the 49ers have covered the spread after a loss the week before. It wasn’t pretty, but San Francisco won a road game against a team over .500. That was also the fourth time the Niners have won when playing in Eastern Standard Time this season.
The 49ers return to Levi’s Stadium this weekend to face the Atlanta Falcons. San Francisco is an 8.5-point favorite over at DraftKings SportsBook, with the total on the game set at 45.5. This season, the “over” is 4-2 at Levi’s Stadium, while the 49ers are only 2-4 at home against the spread this season. They’re failing to cover by an average of -3.5 points.
This game opened at -8 and is already being bet up. I wouldn’t be surprised if it closed closer to -10 in favor of San Francisco. The Falcons have beaten the Panthers, Jags, Saints, Dolphins, Jets, and Giants. The 49ers are better on offense by a full yard per play. Plus, the falcons are bottom-7 in the league on both offense and defense, while the 49ers have a top-10 offense.
A team like the Bengals can make the 49ers pay as they have an aggressive quarterback and will push the ball down the field to two weapons. Kyle Pitts will be a star, but he’s Atlanta’s only playmaker down the field. Atlanta ranks 20th since Week 6 in passing plays over 20 yards. According to Sharp Football Stats, the 49ers are second in passing and fourth in rushing in the same category.
Atlanta lost to Philly by 26, the Bucs by 23, Dallas by 40, the Patriots by 25, and to the Bucs by 13 at home. When they play contenders or competent teams, the Falcons get blown out. If the 49ers are indeed the real deal, they’ll handle the Falcons.