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49ers open up as a 1-point underdogs for their Week 14 matchup against the Bengals

San Francisco is on the road for the second game in a row. This time, against a playoff contender.

San Francisco 49ers v Cincinnati Bengals Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images

The 49ers failed to cover as favorites against the Seattle Seahawks on the road Sunday and are now 5-7 against the spread on year. They’ve been better on the road as the Niners are 1-4 as home favorites on the season. They’ve struggled within the division as San Francisco is also 1-4 against the spread at home.

Week 14 presents another road game with a formidable playoff contender in Cincinnati. Per RBSDM, since Week 6 — which gives us a two-month sample size — the Bengals are 14th in offensive EPA per play (the Seahawks are 25th) and 13th in offensive success rate (the Seahawks are 24th).

The 49ers are 1-point underdogs to the Cincinnati Bengals this upcoming Sunday, with the total at 47.5 over at DraftKings SportsBook. Both teams are coming off a loss, but this was the matchup that should have been flexed into Sunday Night Football over the Bears/Packers “rivalry.”

Both teams have split each of their non-conference games. As a home favorite, the Bengals are 1-3. San Francisco lost its lone game as a road underdog when Trey Lance started his first game.

When you watch the Bengals, they have weapons all over the place on offense. The Niners secondary will have its hands full, especially if Emmanuel Moseley is out for extended time. Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase make plays down the field every game, and Joe Burrow gives them opportunities.

The 49ers are more physical on both sides of the ball. Since Week 6, the Bengals are fifth in defensive EPA per play. I don’t want to take anything away from their success — even though they just gave up over 40 points Sunday. San Francisco should be able to push them around a bit.

You don’t see them resetting the line of scrimmage against the run whether the Bengals are on offense or defense. As a result, they’re 31st on offense in “power rank,” which is a Football Outsiders stat that tracks the percentage of short-yardage runs that are stopped short of the first down marker.

It would be difficult for the 49ers to make as many mistakes on offense and special teams as they did against the Seahawks. In the same breath, I’ve been dreading this matchup for the defense for a few weeks. The Bengals weapons will be tough to slow down, and they are only getting better. Since Week 6, only six teams have more passing plays over 20 yards than Joe Burrow and company.

If I were a betting man, I’d pick the 49ers to bounce back and take the over.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.