If you were looking to make Sunday’s Wild Card playoff game a little more interesting, Michelle Magdziuk and I packed today’s Gold Digger’s podcast with tons of gambling and fantasy advice. Michelle is a researcher for the NFL Network and the Director of Content for Ball Blast Football for those of you who don't know.
49ers over 20.5 points
This seems pretty low, in our opinion. The 49ers have scored at least 23 points in nine of their last 10 games. They hit this over last week against the Cowboys despite scoring just two touchdowns the entire game. They are going to move the ball.
Plus, the Packers defense isn’t exactly known for shutting teams down. They have allowed at least 28 points in five of their last seven games - including allowing 30+ to the Bears, the Vikings, the Ravens without Lamar Jackson, and the Lions.
Elijah Mitchell over 80.5 rushing yards
Mitchell is clearly the 49ers’ bell-cow back. He has had at least 20 carries in each of his last six games, and as a result, he’s hit this over in five of them. No other running back even touches the ball when he’s healthy.
Furthermore, the Packers have allowed 4.7 yards per carry this season, which is 30th in the NFL. In terms of pure rushing yardage allowed per game, they’re 11th, but that has more to do with Green Bay’s offense scoring enough to make opponents abandon the running game than it does with having a stout defense.
Kyle Shanahan knows his path to victory lies on the ground, and he’s going to give Mitchell every opportunity to repeat Raheem Mostert’s success in the 2019 NFC Championship game.
Brandon Aiyuk over 52.5 receiving yards
Aiyuk has very quietly taken over as the number one target in this offense. Since Week 9, he has led the team in receiving yards and is averaging 68.3 yards per game. From Weeks 1-8, he only had 141 receiving yards. Since Week 9, he has 751 of his 892 yards this season. He’s also hit this over in 7 of his last 9 games.
Plus, the Packers have allowed nine players to hit 75+ yards in their last seven games. Someone on this offense is going to have a good game, and it’s probably going to be Brandon Aiyuk because Deebo is now more running back than pure wide receiver. Since Week 10, Deebo has had more targets than rushing attempts just one time. That means Aiyuk will eat.
Davante Adams over 94.5 receiving yards
This one is so low it makes me think someone in Vegas is asleep at the switch. Simply put, Davante Adams eats the 49ers’ breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Since 1970, Adams has had more yards per game against the 49ers than any other player with at least four games against them.
In five career matchups, Adams has only had fewer than 130 receiving yards once. Think about how good the 49ers’ defenses have been lately, and then think about how amazing that is. Barring injury, there is no way Adams doesn’t hit this over, and it’s entirely possible he hits it by halftime.
Allen Lazard longest reception over 18.5 yards
The 49ers’ defense has been outstanding lately, but they do give up some big pass plays. DeMeco Ryans’ bunch has allowed multiple players to have a catch of at least 20 yards in every game since Week 11 against the Jaguars.
Lazard has had a 20+ yard catch in four of his last five games, and with Marquez Valdes-Scantling doubtful, Lazard will have opportunities to hit chunk plays. As much as the secondary has improved with the return of Emmanuel Moseley and the emergence of Ambry Thomas, Aaron Rodgers is too good not to hit help Lazard hit this over.