If you were looking to make Sunday’s game a little more interesting, Michelle Magdziuk and I packed today’s Gold Digger’s podcast with tons of gambling and fantasy advice. If you don’t know, Michelle is a researcher for the NFL Network and writes for NFL.com. So here are three of the best bets you can make in the 49ers game this week.
Baker Mayfield under 205.5 total yards
First off, the 49ers allow the second-fewest passing yards per game in the league. Secondly, Baker Mayfield stinks under pressure. He’s averaging 4.3 passing yards per attempt under pressure this season, the fourth worst in the league. We know the 49ers can get after the quarterback. Hell, Nick Bosa got 14 pressures himself last week, let alone the rest of the defense.
Furthermore, Mayfield hasn’t hit this over since Week 1, and he had a 75-yard touchdown pass in that game. It’s hard to imagine the 49ers giving up that big of a play. As for rushing yards, don’t even worry about those. In the last two weeks, Baker has rushed for a grand total of -1 yards.
Deebo Samuel over 54.5 receiving yards
Deebo has hit this over in the past two weeks, which isn’t surprising considering he’s garnered almost 28% of the 49ers’ targets in that time. While the Panthers’ defense might not be that bad, they also have had trouble containing wide receivers this season. Chris Olave had 140 yards in Week 3, Tre’Quan Smith was also over 100 yards in that game, and Marquise Brown hit this over against them in Week 4 as well. One factor? Fatigue. The Panthers’ offense struggles so much that Carolina’s defense gets tired in the fourth quarter, which is part of the reason they’ve allowed more points in the fourth than any other team this year.
Jeff Wilson Jr. over 67.5 rushing yards
The only thing that can stop San Francisco this week is turnovers, and you know what that means: a billion carries for Jeff Wilson Jr. In three games as the primary running back, Wilson has averaged 16 carries per game. If that holds true in this one and Wilson reaches his career average of 4.3 yards per carry, he’ll hit this over. Considering he’s likely to have far more than 16 carries in the game, this is an even safer safe bet.
Bonus Bet: Panthers under 6.5 points in the first half
The Panthers’ offense is comically bad, and the 49ers’ defense is incredible. San Francisco hasn’t allowed a first-half touchdown all year long, and the Panthers have scored a touchdown on just 13% of their drives this year.
That’s tied with the Steelers for the lowest in the league. Carolina’s average possession is 4.7 plays, and that’s against Cleveland, the Giants, the Saints, and the Cardinals. The 49ers’ defense is, um, slightly better than those teams.
For more betting and fantasy advice, be sure to listen to The Gold Diggers podcast every Friday, and give the Niners Nation Podcast Network a follow while you’re at it.