The 3-7 Pittsburgh Steelers are on the road against the 4-6-1 Indianapolis Colts. Mike Tomlin and Kenny Pickett against Jeff Saturday and Matt Ryan. Of course, there are far more reasons to pick a side.
Tomlin is one of the best coaches of all time as an underdog. Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point underdog at DraftKings Sportsbook with a total of 39.5. The Steelers' offense has woken up during the past few weeks, while the Colts have trended in the opposite direction.
Both of these teams are solid defensively. The Steelers are 14th in DVOA, while the Colts are in DVOA. However, Pittsburgh is closer to top-5 when T.J. Watt is on the field. He’s playing tonight. Furthermore, the Steelers are averaging one fewer yard per play when Watt is on the field. He’s that good.
The Colts struggle along the offensive line and are 31st in the league in EPA per play. They’re also last in DVOA offensively. Expect this game to be lower scoring, and the Steelers might sneak out a win.