The 49ers needed a win over the Rams to maintain an undefeated record in the division and separate themselves from the Rams. San Francisco is 3-0 in the NFC West, one game behind the Seahawks in the loss column, and in an ideal situation heading into the second half of the season, all things considered.
We’ve been tracking the playoff odds via Football Outsiders for a few weeks now. After Week 8, here are the projected odds to make the playoffs for the top ten teams in the NFC:
Eagles - 99.9% (Divisional leader)
Cowboys - 97.3%
Vikings - 93.4% (Divisional leader)
Seahawks - 71.9% (Divisional leader)
Giants - 67.1%
49ers - 67.3%
Buccaneers - 52.2%
Falcons - 43.8% (Divisional leader)
Saints - 22.1%
Rams - 21.6%
Only those that reside in Seattle or Atlanta believe they’ll win their respective divisions. Let’s stick to the NFC West. Here’s where Football Outsiders projects each team to finish:
The Niners are estimated to finish the season with nine wins. That makes them a playoff team, although it’d be unlikely they play at Levi’s Stadium if the NFC East teams continue their streak.
The 49ers still have a 42 percent chance to win the division. Football Outsiders believes the likeliest seed for San Francisco is the three seed, and I concur.
The Seahawks and the 49ers are sixth and seventh in team DVOA. Minnesota is all the way down at 18th. Despite their 6-1 record, they remain unproven. And to be fair, you could say that for just about any team in the conference.
Because there’s so much parity in the NFC, it’s easy to lean toward the team with the best players. Heading into Week 9, here’s how I’d predict the playoff seedings:
- Eagles - Bye
So, the reigning Super Bowl champs don’t make it, and neither does Aaron Rodgers.