49ers open up at 7-point favorites against the Chargers

The 49ers will host the Chargers at home fresh off their bye week and look to get a few, if not more, starters back from injury. DraftKings Sportsbook has the current line set at -7, with the total set at 46.5. So, Vegas is expecting a score around 26-20, San Francisco.

To give you an idea of how much the perception of these teams has changed since the start of the season, the 49ers were -3.5-point favorites when the schedule was initially released, with the total on the game set at 47.5.

There’s a reason for that, as the Chargers are one of the few teams more banged up than the 49ers:

This is the second-largest spread of the season for the 49ers. The first came in Week 2 when the team manhandled the Seahawks at home at 8.5-point favorites. Hopefully, this game will end with a similar result for the home team.

The Chargers may have beaten the Falcons, but Atlanta had no problem moving the ball. They had a 52 percent success rate offensively and gained first downs on 31 percent of their plays — both above-average figures.

More importantly, the Falcons did whatever they wanted to on the ground, as evidenced by a 62 percent success rate, and ran for an incredible 201 yards on 35 attempts. If Marcus Mariota hits Kyle Pitts on a deep pass, the Falcons win the game. Atlanta also lost two fumbles and settled for a field goal in the red zone.

If you’re a gambler, lay the points with the 49ers, as the Chargers don’t have any advantages outside of quarterback. We’ll dig into the matchup as the week goes along, but they have one of the worst offensive lines when you measure them with advanced stats, such as adjusted line yards and lack speed on the perimeter to threaten the 49ers defensively.