Kyle’s update, 10:36 PM PT: Change of plans, the Bills at Ravens is the new sixth game. We accidentally had a game from the previous week listed.
The 49ers are back on in primetime on Monday night. Due to our sponsorship with Tallysight, we have to pick every game. But, as we usually do, we’ll narrow it down to six for you at the bottom.
Dolphins over Bengals: The gap between these teams is definitely smaller than their records suggest, but it’s still a toss up, which leads me to pick the Dolphins at +170.
Saints over Vikings: The Vikings and Saints head to London for the first of the NFL International series of the season.
Falcons over Browns: The Falcons have plenty of problems, but their offense has been good with Marcus Mariota, and their defense has actually done a decent job slowing down opposing running backs. The Browns will need Nick Chubb to have a big game, and I think Atlanta can slow him down enough to get the win.
Ravens over Bills: There are probably three teams in the league I will always pick if they have positive odds. With two of those squads facing off here, I’m taking the Ravens at home at +125.
Commanders over Cowboys: Cooper Rush looks far better than I expected, but the Cowboys only scored 20 and 23 points in his starts. Washington is 0-3, but Carson Wentz’s volatility gives me enough upside to picking the underdog here.
Seahawks over Lions: I think both of these teams are better than we expected heading into the year (even if they’re 1-2 and probably heading for 10+ loss season). However, while the Lions have ridden Hard Knocks into some early-season hype, the Seahawks have been more mediocre than terrible. The Lions are fun, but I’m not confident enough in them to pick them against anyone at +175 right now.
Chargers over Texans: I don’t like how heavy the Chargers are favored in this game. They were a AFC favorite for me heading into the year, but things look bad in LA. Meanwhile, Lovie Smith has helped Houston build on their late-season momentum last year. I’m picking the Chargers because I’ve already picked so many underdogs this week, but I’d probably stay away from this game.
Colts over Titans: This is less a vote of confidence in the Colts coming off a fairly lucky win against Kansas City and more a vote against the Titans.
Bears over Giants: Similar logic to my Seahawks pick here. Brian Daboll has the Giants looking competent early, but they also eked out wins against a pair of bad teams before losing to the Cowboys. The Bears are a comparable 2-1 mess and are worth the pick at +140.
Jaguars over Eagles: The Eagles are a better team than the Jaguars, but Jacksonville has proven over the past couple of weeks that they are more than the pushover they’ve been in the past. The Eagles might be the NFC favorites right now, but I think the Jags have a better than 30% chance (the implied probability, given their odds).
Jets over Steelers: I won’t try to justify this pick with too much football logic. I like Robert Saleh and want to root for him this week, and I’m comfortable picking in his favor against a Mitchell Trubisky-led offense.
Cardinals over Panthers: After getting burned by the Panthers early in the season, I’m sure Baker Mayfield will have a five-touchdown performance to beat Kyler now that I’m picking against him, but it is what it is.
Packers over Patriots: Mac Jones has regressed, and I don’t know what the future holds for the Patriots.
Raiders over Broncos: If Josh McDaniels loses this one... we might have another Raiders coaching search this offseason. And why do I feel like Mark Davis will bring Jon Gruden back if that happens?
Kansas City over Buccaneers: I need more than one week of disarray to be out on Patrick Mahomes.
49ers over Rams: I’ve had my criticism for Kyle Shanahan, but he’s done a great job bouncing back from embarrassing losses. It sure doesn’t seem like the Niners need a win this week, and I think they’ll get it.
Marc’s prediction record:
Week 1: 7-8-1
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 7-9
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Here are the six games for this week’s contest:
Vikings @ Saints, 9:30 AM PT
Browns @ Falcons, 10:00 AM PT
Bills @ Ravens, 10:00 AM PT
Cardinals @ Panthers, 1:05 PM PT
Kansas City @ Buccaneers, 5:20 PM PT
Rams @ 49ers, 5:15 PM PT (Monday)