If you were looking to make Sunday’s game a little more interesting, Michelle Magdziuk and I packed today’s Gold Digger’s podcast with tons of gambling advice. If you don’t know, Michelle is a researcher for the NFL Network and writes for NFL.com. So here are three of the best bets you can make in the 49ers game this week.
Christian McCaffrey over 114.5 scrimmage yards
In three career games against the Seahawks, CMC has averaged 183 yards from scrimmage. That is the most yards from scrimmage anyone has averaged against any team in the Super Bowl era (minimum of three games played).
The Seahawks can be beaten with short passes and with the ground attack. They’ve allowed the second-most rushing yards after contact of any team this season. The stage is set for CMC to shine once again when you throw in the fact that rain could eliminate most of the passing game.
Elijah Mitchell over 38.5 rushing yards
Kyle Shanahan doesn’t usually give multiple running backs a ton of carries, but the rain could dictate a change in strategy. If it does, that obviously favors this over, as Mitchell is clearly the next in line behind McCaffrey.
The 49ers have rushed for 170 yards in both games against Seattle this year, so we know they can control the line of scrimmage. Furthermore, almost any kind of game script favors this over. If the game is a blowout, the Niners will be trying to kill the clock and may even keep CMC on the sideline. If the rain dictates a ground-and-pound attack, Mitchell will have more opportunities. If the game is close, Kyle may use McCaffrey in the slot and keep Mitchell behind Brock Purdy in the backfield.
Kyle Shanahan is a coach that once threw eight passes in an NFC Championship Game. Never doubt his desire to run the ball in the playoffs.
George Kittle over 44.5 receiving yards & longest reception over 20.5 yards
We all remember George Kittle romping through the Seahawks’ secondary on Thursday Night Football in December, and that could happen again this week.
It seems like Kyle Shanahan has gone out of his way to dial up some big things for George recently, and he definitely should one more time because no one allows more yards per reception to tight ends than Seattle this year (14.4).
Here’s the list of tight ends that have had at least one 21-yard catch against them this season, not counting Kittle himself: TJ Hockenson, Travis Kelce, Ross Dwelley, Zack Ertz, Tyler Conklin, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Kroft, Tanner Hudson, Cade Otton, Adam Troutman, and Anthony Firkser.
So, if you think 85 is a good bet to go over the mark for longest reception, it’s also worth taking his over in yards. Shanahan is a master at hurting defenses where they are weak, and everyone knows where the Seahawks’ D is weakest.
Tyler Lockett over 60.5 receiving yards
Lockett has hit this over in each of his last three games against the 49ers. Charvarius Ward will likely shadow DK Metcalf for most of this game, which means Lockett could see a lot of Deommodore Lenoir.
The only way that’s good for you is if you bet on this over. We know Lockett is banged up, but Lenoir has struggled lately and if Geno Smith is going to get the ball to anyone, it’s going to be Tyler Lockett.
Ken Walker over 16.5 rushing attempts
This one doesn’t need much explanation. We all know establishing the run is a core Pete Carroll belief. Walker is a dangerous ball carrier, and Carroll has given him at least 23 carries in each of the last three games.
Plus, the last time he played the 49ers, Walker only had 12 carries coming off an injury. You know that’s kept Pete Carroll up at night. He’s going to want to feed his bell cow back the ball early and often.
Also, the weather. You know where I’m going with that by now.