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NFC Playoff Picture update: The 49ers received no help from the Bears and the Chiefs

“Control what you can control”

Chicago Bears v Detroit Lions Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images

So close, yet so far away. The 49ers were this close to gaining ground against the two teams ahead of them in the NFC playoff picture in Week 11.

But the Detroit Lions did something no other team has done in 2023 by coming back from double digits late. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles needed what felt like 23 drops from the Kansas City Chiefs to escape Arrowhead with a victory.

The Eagles are 6-1 in the NFC. The Lions and 49ers are both 5-1. Here’s a look at the playoff seedings in the NFC through 11 weeks:




1. Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

2. Detroit Lions (8-2)

3. San Francisco 49ers (7-3)

4. New Orleans Saints (5-5)


5. Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

6. Seattle Seahawks (6-4)

7. Minnesota Vikings (6-5)

Still alive

8. Green Bay Packers (4-6)

9. Los Angeles Rams (4-6)

10. Atlanta Falcons (4-6)

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6)

12. Washington Commanders (4-7)

Dug their ditch

13. New York Giants (3-8)

14. Chicago Bears (3-8)

15. Arizona Cardinals (2-9)

16. Carolina Panthers (1-9)

The Eagles host the Buffalo Bills, where they’re 3.5-point favorites. Let’s hope Philly gets the best version of Josh Allen.

The Lions and 49ers both play on Thanksgiving. Each team is favored to beat their respect opponents by a touchdown.

A Seahawks lost to the Rams has changed the Niners simulations, according to the New York Times. San Francisco went from 98 percent to 99 percent to make the playoffs. But their chances of winning the NFC West jumped from 86 percent to 95 percent.

Their odds of obtaining the No. 1 seed dropped one percentage point to 15, while the chances of reaching the Super Bowl is up two percentage points to 15.

Thursday’s matchup between the 49ers and Seahawks would be the first round matchup of the playoffs, but I have a hard time seeing Seattle making it with how they’re playing. Then again, good luck picking out who would replace them in the rest of the conference. If Matthew Stafford stays healthy, it might be as simple as the team with the best quarterback outlasting everybody else.

What’s clear through 11 weeks is that there are no teams in the conference, or the NFL for that matter, that are unbeatable. This looks like the best opportunity for the 49ers to win it all.