clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Dak Prescott jumps Brock Purdy as MVP favorite in latest odds

Prescott was under the lights, and you usually remember the last thing that you saw.

Seattle Seahawks v San Francisco 49ers Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

There’s this weird reluctance to give Brock Purdy credit for the 49ers offensive success. The mismatch at the skill positions is the reason why the Niners are hovering around or exceeding 30 points per game.

But detractors feel obligated to point out that the talent, not the quarterback, is the reason why Purdy shouldn’t be named the MVP. Brock’s stats are strikingly similar to Matt Ryan’s in 2016:

Why don’t the 49ers have to throw the ball 40+ times a game like most quarterbacks? Because their efficiency level is through the roof, so they’re not relying on volume to get the job done.

A better way to look at Purdy’s season is to appreciate how he’s helped the 49ers offense reach its ceiling overnight. That can be true while acknowledging Christian McCaffrey has been better than the Niners had hoped for, Deebo Samuel is playing at his peak, while Brandon Aiyuk is playing for a new contract. Oh, and George Kittle is still on the roster.

There’s also no way to quantify the correct plays Purdy checks into or how many drives he keeps alive by making plays off-script or avoiding a sack to keep the drive alive. We’ve made the MVP argument so simplistic that we’ve lost what quarterback play is about. One thing it’s not about is EPA or a singular stat.

Statistically, Purdy had an impressive showing in Week 14. The same can be said for Dak Prescott, who is the new leader in MVP rankings, according to DraftKings Sportsbook:

You’ll always remember the last thing that you saw. Prescott was on Sunday Night Football and carved up the Eagles. If Dak wins the MVP, he’ll have to earn it during the next month. Dallas travels to Buffalo and Miami, then gets the Dolphins and home, before finishing up on the road against the Commanders.

We also love to bring up Purdy’s weapons but turn a blind eye to the Cowboys schedule through December. It’s the easiest schedule in the NFL, per DVOA.