Win some, lose some. That’s not great for gamblers who bet parlays, but it fits my narrative. Last week, we went three out of four on our picks for the 49ers in Arizona. Football, much like gambling, requires a short memory. Each play and bet is the next successful one.
We hit on a 49ers win, George Kittle going over his receiving prop, and Christian McCaffrey scoring a touchdown. However, we missed on Brock Purdy’s passing yard prop, so our same-game parlay was missed.
Our season-long record heading into the final three weeks sits at 35-22. Sitting over .500 is a win, but we don’t aim for moral victories, only complete wins.
Let’s look at some prop bets to target for Monday Night Football against the Ravens, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brace yourself, but I’m going back to McCaffrey and his anytime TD prop, which sits at -245. I know, a very bold choice and going out on a limb.
Instead of taking Purdy’s passing yard prop, let’s go with his alternate passing yard prop of 225 plus at -260. I expect this to be Purdy’s signature performance and win. Exceeding that passing yard total feels like stealing.
In a game that will be physical and feature the two best teams in football, I expect Deebo Samuel to show out. Samuel’s rushing yard prop sits at 11.5 yards. Yes, and yes. I’ll take it at -110.
Not only is this the primetime game on MNF, but it’s also the spotlight game of the NFL season. That can only mean it’s a huge Kittle game. Kittle’s receiving yards prop sits at 48.5 yards. I fully expect Kyle Shanahan to force Baltimore’s linebackers to cover, and that means Kittle will likely benefit.
Our same game parlay consists of McCaffrey scoring a touchdown, Purdy exceeding 225 passing yards, Samuel rushing for more than 11.5 yards, Kittle over 48.5 receiving yards, and a 49ers win. The odds sit at +625. Fifty dollars turns into 362.50!
Enjoy your football, and family, and cash your tickets!