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Super Bowl 2023: The 4 best picks, player props to consider for Eagles vs. Chiefs

A couple of QB props, a total, and an old friend

Super Bowl LVII - Philadelphia Eagles Practice Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

If you are a degenerate or simply looking to find ways to make a wager on Super Bowl LVII, there are hundreds of ways for you to bet on today’s game.

Sportsbooks envision this game being a coin flip, which is understandable. Let’s avoid a side for now and talk through the best plays for the Super Bowl.

Over 50.5 -115

For a game that involves one of the most prolific quarterbacks we’ve ever seen in the NFL and an offense that is good for four touchdowns a game, the total for this is too low.

The Chiefs were the No. 1 offensive team in the league this past season, scoring 29.1 points per game. Not far behind were the third-place Eagles, scoring a shade over 28 points per game.

But the Chiefs haven’t scored 28 in the playoffs — if only there was an injury as to the reason why — and have gone under their projected total in both games and in each of their last three games by an average of 6.1 points.

We’re getting value due to this, and the Eagles giving up next to nothing against otherworldly quarterbacks in Daniel Jones and Josh Johnson.

From Week’s 13 to 18, Kansas City finished 19th in defensive DVOA. Now they face Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Miles Sanders, and the best offensive line in the NFL that can score in bunches.

35 at Detroit, 21 when it was pouring rain in Jacksonville, 32 against Taylor Heinicke, 33 against a Packers team that played Jordan Love under center, and a 40-burger to Dak Prescott.

Each data point we have where the Eagles play a competent offense that isn’t on their fourth-string quarterback, they give up a ton of points. And neither of those offenses were in the same class as the Chiefs. Take the over.

Jalen Hurts OVER 48.5 rushing yards

During that same stretch from Week 13 through 18, the Chiefs had the 17th rushing defensive DVOA. Philadelphia was running Hurts late in the third quarter during an NFC Championship game that was well in hand.

If Hurts has a lane to run, he’s going to take it. Knowing that Steve Spagnuolo will blitz early and often, that’ll only force Hurts to lean on his legs.

During the regular season, Hurts surpassed this number in only seven of his games, but that ignores the blowouts. When the game was close, Hurts turned into a dynamic threat on the ground. This game should be one-possession heading into the final quarter, which means Hurts rushing will be a focal point of the Eagles offense. Consider the over.

Jerick McKinnon OVER 3.5 receptions

Old friend alert.

Philadelphia has the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball and are eighth in rushing DVOA since Week 13. I’d be surprised if Andy Reid wasted time running the ball today.

The Chiefs will lean on a running game by extension via screens and quick passes in the flat. McKinnon is the superior pass protector, so his snap count should be higher than the other running backs on the roster.

The Eagles were 24th in DVOA at defending running back passes this season, surrendering 6.8 on the year. Down the stretch, when McKinnon started to play more, he had seven, eight, and five receptions after Week 14.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 4.5 rushing attempts

On the largest stage, let’s go with the best player not only in the sport but perhaps all-time when it’s all said and done. As of writing, this might be the easiest prop bet you’ll have all season. Don’t be surprised if most sportsbooks bump this number up to 4.5 by Sunday, so that’s what we’ll grade it as.

This is simple. The bigger the game, the more Patrick Mahomes relies on his legs. That’s been the case going on a few seasons now. Many will shy away from this, knowing that Mahomes has an ankle injury, but we’re getting to look at it as if we’re getting value.

Mahomes surpassed three rushing attempts 10 times during the regular season. He had three rushing attempts against the Jaguars despite playing on one leg and missing a chunk of the game. During the AFC Championship, Mahomes hit three again, despite not being able to put pressure on his ankle.

With an additional two weeks for his ankle to heal and this being the final game with everything on the line, you’d imagine Mahomes will be a more willing runner.

We also have to think about how often the Eagles are likely to get pressure against Mahomes, who is a magician when it comes to avoiding sacks. Kansas City’s pressure rate allowed is up 9 percent in the playoffs.

When the stakes are high, Mahomes runs. This figures to be a high-scoring game. In last year’s wild AFC Divisional Round matchup against the Bills, Mahomes had seven carries. Earlier in the year, against Buffalo, he had eight.

The greatest quarterback I’ve seen with my own eyes is likely to finish closer to eight than three, making this a no-brainer to bet.